Romania vs Sweden UEFA Nations League prediction & result
Final score: Romania 0-1 Sweden.
Before kick-off the model made it 34% Romania, 28% draw, 38% Sweden — fair odds of 2.94, 3.57 and 2.63.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
All Nations League predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
Sweden at 38%: of 4,828 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.4% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Romania vs Sweden
Line-ups
- 12O. HindrichG
- 2A. RațiuD
- 4A. CoubișD
- 3M. IlieD
- 11N. BancuD
- 22V. DragomirM
- 18R. MarinM
- 20D. ManM
- 10N. StanciuM
- 7D. OlaruM
- 9F. TănaseF
- 8A. CicâldăuM
- 13V. MihăilăF
- 14I. HagiM
- 5L. EissatD
- 19C. CîrjanM
- 16V. CojocaruG
- 21O. MoruțanF
- 15R. OpruțD
- 1I. RaduG
- 12V. JohanssonG
- 2F. BeijmoD
- 4E. SmithD
- 3V. LindelöfD
- 5G. GudmundssonD
- 21A. BernhardssonM
- 7L. BergvallM
- 16J. KarlströmM
- 19S. NanasiM
- 22B. ZeneliF
- 17V. GyökeresF
- 1N. TörnqvistG
- 11W. SwedbergF
- 8D. SvenssonD
- 14E. SkoglundD
- 13K. SemaM
- 20H. LarssonM
- 15V. ErikssonD
- 23M. EllborgG
- 18S. DahlD
Form going into Romania vs Sweden
Romania
UEFA Nations League
- L0-6away to Poland2 October 2026
- L2-4Bosnia & Herzegovina28 September 2026
- L1-2away to Sweden25 September 2026
Sweden
UEFA Nations League
- D1-1away to Bosnia & Herzegovina2 October 2026
- W3-1Poland28 September 2026
- W2-1Romania25 September 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
UEFA Nations League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Romania | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 5 | 14 | -9 | 3 |
| 1 | Sweden | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 10 | 5 | +5 | 13 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Romania vs Sweden
- 25 September 2026Sweden 2–1 RomaniaUEFA Nations League
- 15 November 2019Romania 0–2 SwedenEuro Championship
- 23 March 2019Sweden 2–1 RomaniaEuro Championship
- 27 March 2018Romania 1–0 SwedenFriendlies
Leading scorers: Romania and Sweden
Romania
No player in UEFA Nations League's leading scorers — 5 league goals as a side.
Sweden
GoalsAssists
- V. Gyökeres60
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Sweden won 1–0 at Romania. The model had made a win for Sweden its most likely outcome, at 38%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–1. The goal: Viktor Gyökeres 13' for Sweden.
How the call on Romania v Sweden has moved
First published on 29 Sep at 42% / 28% / 30% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 1 update, it read 34% / 28% / 38%: the biggest move is Romania's chance of winning, down 8 points.
- Romania win34%▼ −8
- Draw28%=
- Sweden win38%▲ +8
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.