10 August 2026, 16:30 UTC

Fakel vs Akhmat Premier League prediction & result

Fakel Stadium, Voronezh
Full time0 – 0

Final score: Fakel 0-0 Akhmat.

Before kick-off the model made it 55% Fakel, 19% draw, 26% Akhmat — fair odds of 1.82, 5.26 and 3.85. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Fakel at 55% here. Across 2488 settled matches, 635 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 52.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Fakel7%Draw88%Akhmat5%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

🔁M. Turishchevout: B. Pusi
37'
Alexey Sutormin
52'
🔁N. Giorgobianiout: B. Magomedov
58'
🔁A. Sutorminout: A. Kovalev
58'
59'
🔁K. Shchetininout: I. Silva
66'
🔁G. Melkadzeout: E. Maksuti
68'
Erald Maksuti
Darko Todorović
76'
🔁V. Yakimovout: A. Bagamaev
84'
🔁D. Todorovicout: A. Gnapi Dable
84'
90+2'
🔁L. Sadulaevout: M. Keliano

Match stats — Fakel vs Akhmat

54%Possession46%
13Shots12
3On target2
10Corners4

Line-ups

Fakel 5-3-2
  • 1D. FrolkinG
  • 55D. TodorovicD
  • 5A. GabaraevD
  • 20I. YurganovD
  • 53M. BardachevD
  • 10I. AlshinD
  • 23V. YakimovM
  • 11A. SutorminM
  • 52R. NetfullinM
  • 7M. TurishchevF
  • 99N. GiorgobianiF
Substitutes
  • 96I. ObukhovG
  • 35V. DorovskikhG
  • 8A. BagamaevM
  • 9A. Gnapi DableF
  • 18K. SimonovM
  • 93M. UridiaF
  • 44Y. ZhuravlevD
  • 97B. MagomedovM
  • 17A. KovalevM
Coach: Oleg Vasilenko
Akhmat 4-2-3-1
  • 1V. UlyanovG
  • 95A. AdamovD
  • 90O. NdongD
  • 5K. CakeD
  • 8M. BogosavacD
  • 4T. IbishevM
  • 18J. RomaoM
  • 20M. SamorodovM
  • 10K. ShchetininM
  • 7L. SadulaevM
  • 77G. MelkadzeF
Substitutes
  • 88G. SheliaG
  • 71R. MitsaevG
  • 11I. SilvaM
  • 23G. KenzhebekM
  • 42M. KelianoM
  • 81M. SidorovD
  • 70A. GadzhievM
  • 76E. MaksutiF
  • 97A. KasadzhikovF
Coach: Stanislav Cherchesov

Premier League table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
16Fakel9036613-73
10Akhmat92431313010

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Fakel vs Akhmat

  • 10 August 2026Fakel 0–0 AkhmatPremier League
  • 5 April 2025Fakel 0–0 AkhmatPremier League
  • 18 October 2024Akhmat 2–3 FakelPremier League
  • 25 May 2024Fakel Voronezh 2–0 Akhmat GroznyPremier League
  • 4 November 2023Akhmat Grozny 1–2 Fakel VoronezhPremier League
  • 16 April 2023Fakel Voronezh 1–1 Akhmat GroznyPremier League

Leading scorers: Fakel and Akhmat

Fakel

No player in Premier League's leading scorers — 6 league goals as a side.

Akhmat

  • Egas Cacintura3 goals1 assists
  • G. Melkadze3 goals
  • L. Sadulaev2 goals3 assists

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.