CSKA 1948 vs Cherno More Varna First League prediction & result
Final score: CSKA 1948 4-1 Cherno More Varna.
Before kick-off the model made it 81% CSKA 1948, 13% draw, 6% Cherno More Varna — fair odds of 1.23, 7.69 and 16.67. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-0.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts CSKA 1948 at 81% here. Across 2485 settled matches, 276 forecasts have landed in the 65–100% band; those outcomes actually happened 60.1% of the time, against an average forecast of 74.5%. In this range the model is over-confident, so read the figure above as optimistic rather than literal.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 5 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Line-ups
- 31Aleks BozhevG
- 2Diego MedinaD
- 4Andre HoffmannD
- 5Benaissa BenamarD
- 22Ognjen GaševićD
- 8Moataz ZemzemiM
- 34Petar VitanovM
- 67Frédéric MacielM
- 30Jules MeyerM
- 11Georgi RusevM
- 20Brian SobreroM
- 9Atanas IlievF
- 77Elias FrancoM
- 10Borislav TsonevM
- 19Marto BoychevM
- 23Florian KrebsM
- 13Dimitar SheytanovG
- 96Dragan GrivićD
- 70Kostadin IlievD
- 6Egor ParkhomenkoD
- 81Kristian TomovG
- 50Ertan TombakD
- 3Zhivko AtanasovD
- 5Luciano SquadroneD
- 26João BandaroD
- 29Berk BeyhanM
- 24David TelesM
- 39Nikolay ZlatevM
- 11Mohamed AchiM
- 10Celso SidneyF
- 19Georgi LazarovF
- 7Miguel BarandasF
- 71Vasil PanayotovM
- 14Aleksandar TodorovM
- 9Jorge PadillaF
- 18Petar AndreevM
- 31Damyan HristovG
- 37Ventsislav KerchevD
- 13Emanuil NyagolovD
- 93Georgi VentsislavovD
Form going into CSKA 1948 vs Cherno More Varna
CSKA 1948
- L1-2Panathinaikos11 August 2026
- W3-1away to Lokomotiv Sofia8 August 2026
- D1-1away to Panathinaikos5 August 2026
- W2-1Arda Kardzhali31 July 2026
- D0-0Spartak Trnava28 July 2026
Cherno More Varna
- L2-3Ludogorets9 August 2026
- L0-1away to Botev Plovdiv1 August 2026
- L0-3Spartak Varna26 July 2026
- D1-1away to Botev Vratsa19 July 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
First League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | CSKA 1948 | 9 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 17 | 9 | +8 | 19 |
| 12 | Cherno More Varna | 9 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 10 | 19 | -9 | 5 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: CSKA 1948 vs Cherno More Varna
- 14 August 2026CSKA 1948 4–1 Cherno More VarnaFirst League
- 15 April 2026Cherno More Varna 0–4 CSKA 1948First League
- 9 November 2025CSKA 1948 0–1 Cherno More VarnaFirst League
- 24 November 2024CSKA 1948 0–4 Cherno More VarnaFirst League
- 19 July 2024Cherno More Varna 0–0 CSKA 1948First League
- 15 March 2024Cherno More Varna 2–1 CSKA 1948First League
Leading scorers: CSKA 1948 and Cherno More Varna
CSKA 1948
- Frédéric Maciel1 goals
Cherno More Varna
No player in First League's leading scorers — 10 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.