Pumas UNAM vs Necaxa Liga MX prediction & result
Final score: Pumas UNAM 1-1 Necaxa.
Before kick-off the model made it 32% Pumas UNAM, 32% draw, 36% Necaxa — fair odds of 3.13, 3.13 and 2.78. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Necaxa at 36% here. Across 2485 settled matches, 1767 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.4% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Pumas UNAM vs Necaxa
Pumas UNAM
- D0-0Club Queretaro16 August 2026
Necaxa
- L1-2Leon18 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Liga MX table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Pumas UNAM | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 11 | 12 | -1 | 11 |
| 13 | Necaxa | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 9 | 13 | -4 | 8 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Pumas UNAM vs Necaxa
- 7 March 2026Necaxa 0–1 Pumas UNAMLiga MX
- 11 August 2025Pumas UNAM 1–1 NecaxaLiga MX
- 12 January 2025Pumas UNAM 2–1 NecaxaLiga MX
- 14 September 2024Necaxa 2–0 Pumas UNAMLiga MX
- 1 February 2024Pumas UNAM 2–2 NecaxaLiga MX
- 28 October 2023Necaxa 1–0 Pumas UNAMLiga MX
Leading scorers: Pumas UNAM and Necaxa
Pumas UNAM
- Juninho4 goals
Necaxa
- J. Carranza4 goals1 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.