Septemvri Sofia vs CSKA 1948 First League prediction & result
Final score: Septemvri Sofia 1-0 CSKA 1948.
Before kick-off the model made it 19% Septemvri Sofia, 23% draw, 58% CSKA 1948 — fair odds of 5.26, 4.35 and 1.72.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
CSKA 1948 at 58%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Line-ups
- 12Vladimir IvanovG
- 6Pedro FerreiraM
- 4Martin HristovD
- 13Kubrat OnashchiD
- 3Sebas WadeD
- 5Yoan BaurenskiM
- 8Bozhidar PenchevD
- 11Aleksandar DzhamovF
- 33Galin IvanovM
- 29Frantzety HerardF
- 27André LiberalF
- 19Pedro IgorM
- 7Edney RibeiroF
- 28Stoyan StoichkovM
- 26Valentine OzornwaforD
- 21Nikolay KrastevG
- 15Petar GospodinovD
- 20Bozhidar TomovskiD
- 24Zahari AtanasovM
- 30Viktor DobrevM
- 31Aleks BozhevG
- 2Diego MedinaD
- 4Andre HoffmannD
- 5Benaissa BenamarD
- 15Fourat SoltaniD
- 8Moataz ZemzemiM
- 33Héctor CuellarM
- 67Frédéric MacielM
- 11Georgi RusevM
- 30Jules MeyerM
- 9Atanas IlievF
- 20Brian SobreroM
- 77Elias FrancoM
- 93Mamadou DialloF
- 23Florian KrebsM
- 34Petar VitanovM
- 13Dimitar SheytanovG
- 96Dragan GrivićD
- 10Borislav TsonevM
- 14Kaloyan StrinskiM
Form going into Septemvri Sofia vs CSKA 1948
Septemvri Sofia
All competitions we cover
- W1-0away to Spartak Varna17 August 2026
- L0-3CSKA Sofia9 August 2026
- L0-3away to Levski Sofia1 August 2026
- L1-2away to Lokomotiv Plovdiv26 July 2026
- D1-1Arda Kardzhali18 July 2026
CSKA 1948
All competitions we cover
- W4-1Cherno More Varna14 August 2026
- L1-2Panathinaikos11 August 2026
- W3-1away to Lokomotiv Sofia8 August 2026
- D1-1away to Panathinaikos5 August 2026
- W2-1Arda Kardzhali31 July 2026
What these results say
- Septemvri Sofia failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Septemvri Sofia conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- CSKA 1948 scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- CSKA 1948 conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Both sides scored in every one of these 5 matches for CSKA 1948.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
First League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Septemvri Sofia | 14 | 3 | 2 | 9 | 12 | 25 | -13 | 11 |
| 4 | CSKA 1948 | 14 | 9 | 2 | 3 | 33 | 16 | +17 | 29 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Septemvri Sofia vs CSKA 1948
- 3 December 2025Septemvri Sofia 1–4 CSKA 1948First League
- 1 August 2025CSKA 1948 2–1 Septemvri SofiaFirst League
- 11 May 2025CSKA 1948 2–0 Septemvri SofiaFirst League
- 3 December 2024CSKA 1948 2–0 Septemvri SofiaFirst League
- 25 September 2024Septemvri Sofia 1–1 CSKA 1948First League
Leading scorers: Septemvri Sofia and CSKA 1948
Septemvri Sofia
GoalsAssists
- André Filipe Rio Liberal11
- F. Herard10
- A. Dzhamov10
CSKA 1948
GoalsAssists
- Frédéric Maciel30
- Elias Franco20
- A. Iliev10
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Septemvri Sofia beat CSKA 1948 1–0. The model had leaned towards a win for CSKA 1948 at 58% and given a win for Septemvri Sofia 19%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 5 matches like this one. The goal: Frantzety Herard 59' for Septemvri Sofia.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent matches in our records (any competition, kept since July 2026) before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.