Brisbane Roar vs Perth Glory A-League prediction & result
Final score: Brisbane Roar 2-1 Perth Glory.
Before kick-off the model made it 36% Brisbane Roar, 27% draw, 37% Perth Glory — fair odds of 2.78, 3.70 and 2.70.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
Perth Glory at 37%: of 4,828 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.4% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Brisbane Roar vs Perth Glory
Line-ups
- 40George PlusninG
- 77Milorad StajićD
- 5Tom AldredD
- 16Joel KingD
- 13Tate RussellM
- 10Tae Hee NamM
- 6Noah MaieroniM
- 8Tyrese FrancoisM
- 19Sabit James NgorM
- 9Virgiliu PostolachiF
- 17Justin VidicF
- 15Hosine BilityD
- 11Marko IlicF
- 41Emmet ShawM
- 22Nathan AmanatidisF
- 2Jacob NassoD
- 1Dean BouzanisG
- 14Emin DurakovicM
- 1Matt SuttonG
- 30Tadiwanashe KuzambaD
- 18Cher DengD
- 5Lachlan JacksonD
- 24Andriano LebibD
- 7Stefan ColakovskiM
- 25Sebastian DespotovskiM
- 16Lucas SciclunaM
- 3Sam SuttonM
- 17Pieter JacobszF
- 10Tom LawrenceF
- 9Jaiden KucharskiF
- 21Matthew EllisD
- 39Giovanni De AbreuM
- 11Sebastian KukuckaF
- 8Jay O'SheaM
- 29Daniel SolskyG
- 44Riley FoxeD
Form going into Brisbane Roar vs Perth Glory
Brisbane Roar
No earlier matches on record this season.
Perth Glory
A-League
- L1-2away to Macarthur FC17 October 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
A-League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Brisbane Roar | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 3 | +2 | 7 |
| 5 | Perth Glory | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 5 | +3 | 6 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Brisbane Roar vs Perth Glory
- 25 April 2026Perth Glory 2–1 Brisbane RoarA-League
- 28 February 2026Brisbane Roar 1–1 Perth GloryA-League
- 16 January 2026Perth Glory 1–2 Brisbane RoarA-League
- 15 March 2025Perth Glory 1–3 Brisbane RoarA-League
- 21 December 2024Brisbane Roar 0–1 Perth GloryA-League
- 23 July 2024Brisbane Roar 2–4 Perth GloryAustralia Cup
Leading scorers: Brisbane Roar and Perth Glory
Brisbane Roar
GoalsAssists
- J. Vidic20
Perth Glory
GoalsAssists
- J. Kucharski31
- M. Ellis20
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Brisbane Roar beat Perth Glory 2–1. The model had leaned towards a win for Perth Glory at 37% and given a win for Brisbane Roar 36%. The goals: J. Vidic 28' for Brisbane Roar, Nam Tae-Hee 42' for Brisbane Roar, M. Ellis 60' for Perth Glory.
How the call on Brisbane Roar v Perth Glory has moved
First published on 9 Oct at 34% / 27% / 39% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 2 updates, it read 36% / 27% / 37%: the biggest move is Brisbane Roar's chance of winning, up 2 points.
- Brisbane Roar win36%▲ +2
- Draw27%=
- Perth Glory win37%▼ −2
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.