Melbourne Victory vs Melbourne City A-League prediction & result
Final score: Melbourne Victory 1-1 Melbourne City.
Before kick-off the model made it 44% Melbourne Victory, 25% draw, 31% Melbourne City — fair odds of 2.27, 4.00 and 3.23.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
Melbourne Victory at 44%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Melbourne Victory vs Melbourne City
Line-ups
- 25Jack DuncanG
- 16Joshua InserraD
- 4Philipp ZiereisD
- 3Jason DavidsonD
- 36Harrison ShillingtonD
- 8Jordi ValadonM
- 10Denis GenreauM
- 21Guillermo MayM
- 14Matthew GrimaldiM
- 23Keegan JelacicM
- 44Charles NdukaF
- 11ClarismarioF
- 18Franco LinoD
- 9Harry SawyerF
- 29Michael GhossainiF
- 1Jack WarshawskyG
- 15Tom LockyerD
- 22Xavier StellaD
- 1Macklin FrekeG
- 13Nathaniel AtkinsonD
- 4Liam BonetigD
- 2Harrison DelbridgeD
- 16Aziz BehichD
- 14Besian KutleshiM
- 24Kavian RahmaniM
- 23Medin MemetiM
- 19Quinn MacNicolM
- 11Awer MabilM
- 15Andrew NabboutF
- 10Emiliano MarcondesM
- 7Mathew LeckieF
- 77Takeshi KanamoriF
- 18Julio CascanteD
- 39Roland BallahF
- 40James NieuwenhuizenG
- 38Beckham BakerF
Form going into Melbourne Victory vs Melbourne City
Melbourne Victory
A-League
- L1-2away to Wellington Phoenix18 October 2026
Melbourne City
A-League
- L1-3away to Auckland FC17 October 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
A-League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Melbourne Victory | 4 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 6 | -1 | 3 |
| 4 | Melbourne City | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 6 | 0 | 7 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Melbourne Victory vs Melbourne City
- 21 February 2026Melbourne City 1–3 Melbourne VictoryA-League
- 20 December 2025Melbourne City 0–1 Melbourne VictoryA-League
- 8 November 2025Melbourne Victory 0–2 Melbourne CityA-League
- 31 May 2025Melbourne City 1–0 Melbourne VictoryA-League
- 22 February 2025Melbourne Victory 2–2 Melbourne CityA-League
- 21 December 2024Melbourne Victory 1–1 Melbourne CityA-League
Leading scorers: Melbourne Victory and Melbourne City
Melbourne Victory
GoalsAssists
- K. Jelacic20
- J. Valadon20
- C. Nduka12
Melbourne City
GoalsAssists
- A. Nabbout20
- E. Marcondes12
- Q. Macnicol10
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Melbourne Victory and Melbourne City drew 1–1. The model had leaned towards a win for Melbourne Victory at 44% and given a draw 25%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: K. Jelacic 7' for Melbourne Victory, A. Nabbout 53' for Melbourne City.