23 October 2026, 17:00 UTC

Boluspor vs Vanspor FK 1. Lig prediction & result

Bolu
Referee: Emrullah Baydar, Türkiye
Full time0 – 3

Final score: Boluspor 0-3 Vanspor FK.

Before kick-off the model made it 38% Boluspor, 29% draw, 33% Vanspor FK — fair odds of 2.63, 3.45 and 3.03.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Boluspor at 38%: of 4,828 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.4% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Boluspor0%Draw1%Vanspor FK99%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

🔁Ahmet Can Özdemirout: Furkan Metin
8'
Bertu Ozyurek
12'
30'
İlkan Sever
45'
🔁Özkan Yiğiterout: Hikmet Çiftçi
45'
🔁Celal Hanalpout: Mehmet Manis
T. Artuç
49'
54'
Ilias Alhaft
B. Göçmen
56'
58'
⚽Hikmet Çiftçi (pen)
Rodrigo Rivas González
62'
🔁Bertu Ozyurekout: Fernando Escobar
66'
🔁Rodrigo Rivas Gonzálezout: M. Çaylı
66'
70'
⚽İlkan Severassist: Sinan Osmanoğlu
72'
•İlkan Sever
76'
🔁İlkan Severout: Alvaro de Oliveira
🔁T. Artuçout: Hosue Díaz
76'
🔁Canberk Ozdemirout: Abdulsamet Kırım
76'
76'
🔁Ozan Kokcuout: Jesse Khan
89'
🔁Ilias Alhaftout: Medeni Bingol
90'
🔁Naby Youssouf Oulareout: Kadir Seven
🔁Muhammed Mertout: Elvin Yunuszade
90'
Hosue Díaz
90+1'
90+2'
Mehmet Özcan
90+6'
⚽Alvaro de Oliveiraassist: Tenton Yenne

Match stats — Boluspor vs Vanspor FK

47%Possession53%
9Shots12
3On target8
8Corners3
0.44xG1.75

Goals against chances

Boluspor0 from 0.44 xGabout what the chances were worth
Vanspor FK3 from 1.75 xGmore than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Boluspor 4-2-3-1
  • 1A. TafasG
  • 64Ahmet OzdemirD
  • 50B. GöçmenD
  • 3K. CuestaD
  • 54C. ÖzdemirD
  • 8T. ArtuçM
  • 23Z. DursunM
  • 67B. ÖzyürekM
  • 21M. MertM
  • 35E. ÖzkayımoğluM
  • 9R. RivasF
Substitutes
  • 77N. KorkmazM
  • 10Fernando EscobarF
  • 19J. DiazM
  • 14A. KırımD
  • 2F. MetinD
  • 22Arda Tuğra SaygıD
  • 27Ali Uğurhan UğurluD
  • 32E. YunuszadəD
  • 17M. ÇaylıM
Coach: Mustapha Yatabaré
Vanspor FK 4-3-3
  • 22A. DamluG
  • 77C. HanalpD
  • 5S. OsmanoğluD
  • 13N. OularéD
  • 61F. GençD
  • 58Ö. YiğiterM
  • 41M. ÖzcanM
  • 10O. KökçüM
  • 7I. AlhaftF
  • 17İlkan SeverF
  • 15T. YenneF
Substitutes
  • 65M. BingölD
  • 8M. KhanM
  • 11M. ManişF
  • 2K. SevenD
  • 53G. UstaF
  • 1A. UysalG
  • 9Álvaro de OliveiraF
  • 19H. ÇiftçiM
  • 25F. ÖzhanF
Coach: M. Gürsel

Form going into Boluspor vs Vanspor FK

Boluspor

1. Lig

  • L0-1away to Iğdır FK18 October 2026
  • L0-1Antalyaspor10 October 2026

Vanspor FK

1. Lig

  • L0-2Ümraniyespor18 October 2026
  • W2-1away to Pendikspor13 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

1. Lig table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
20Boluspor131111628-224
14Vanspor FK145361723-616

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Boluspor vs Vanspor FK

  • 9 January 2026Vanspor FK 0–1 Boluspor1. Lig
  • 10 August 2025Boluspor 2–3 Vanspor FK1. Lig
  • 19 December 2018Vanspor FK 2–2 BolusporTürkiye Kupası
  • 5 December 2018Boluspor 5–1 Vanspor FKTürkiye Kupası

The result against the call

Vanspor FK won 3–0 at Boluspor. The model had leaned towards a win for Boluspor at 38% and given a win for Vanspor FK 33%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one. The goals: Hikmet Çiftçi (penalty) 58' for Vanspor FK, İlkan Sever 70' for Vanspor FK, Alvaro de Oliveira 90+6' for Vanspor FK. On expected goals it finished 0.44–1.75.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Vanspor FK a 77.2% chance to finish in the bottom four: 72.1% after a win, 77.8% after a draw, 82.0% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 72.1%, 5.1 points lower than before the match.

Read from our 1. Lig season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Boluspor v Vanspor FK has moved

First published on 9 Oct at 38% / 27% / 35% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 6 updates, it read 38% / 29% / 33%: the biggest move is Vanspor FK's chance of winning, down 2 points.

  1. Boluspor win38%=
  2. Draw29%▲ +2
  3. Vanspor FK win33%▼ −2

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.