Wellington Phoenix vs Melbourne Victory A-League prediction & result
Final score: Wellington Phoenix 2-1 Melbourne Victory.
Before kick-off the model made it 29% Wellington Phoenix, 24% draw, 47% Melbourne Victory — fair odds of 3.45, 4.17 and 2.13.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
Melbourne Victory at 47%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Wellington Phoenix vs Melbourne Victory
Line-ups
- 13Henry GrayG
- 27Matthew SheridanD
- 28Bill TuilomaD
- 18Lukas Kelly-HealdD
- 23James McGarryD
- 8Max AndersonM
- 25Kazuki NagasawaM
- 35Luke MitchellM
- 7Bryce DukeF
- 99Corban PiperF
- 9Rafael DuranF
- 17Nathan WalkerF
- 5Walter ScottD
- 11Riley BidoisF
- 30Alby Kelly-HealdG
- 34Dylan GardinerD
- 24Tze-xuan LokeF
- 37Anaru CassidyM
- 25Jack DuncanG
- 16Joshua InserraD
- 4Philipp ZiereisD
- 3Jason DavidsonD
- 18Franco LinoD
- 11ClarismarioM
- 8Jordi ValadonM
- 10Denis GenreauM
- 14Matthew GrimaldiM
- 21Guillermo MayF
- 44Charles NdukaF
- 15Tom LockyerD
- 23Keegan JelacicF
- 22Xavier StellaD
- 29Michael GhossainiF
- 5Brendan HamillD
- 1Jack WarshawskyG
- 36Harrison ShillingtonD
A-League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Wellington Phoenix | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 1 | +6 | 10 |
| 9 | Melbourne Victory | 4 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 6 | -1 | 3 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Wellington Phoenix vs Melbourne Victory
- 5 April 2026Melbourne Victory 0–1 Wellington PhoenixA-League
- 6 February 2026Wellington Phoenix 2–3 Melbourne VictoryA-League
- 29 December 2025Melbourne Victory 5–1 Wellington PhoenixA-League
- 12 April 2025Wellington Phoenix 2–3 Melbourne VictoryA-League
- 14 February 2025Melbourne Victory 1–0 Wellington PhoenixA-League
- 24 November 2024Wellington Phoenix 1–0 Melbourne VictoryA-League
Leading scorers: Wellington Phoenix and Melbourne Victory
Wellington Phoenix
GoalsAssists
- C. Piper30
- R. Bidois20
- N. Walker11
Melbourne Victory
GoalsAssists
- K. Jelacic20
- J. Valadon20
- C. Nduka12
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Wellington Phoenix beat Melbourne Victory 2–1. The model had leaned towards a win for Melbourne Victory at 47% and given a win for Wellington Phoenix 29%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one. The goals: C. Piper 14' for Wellington Phoenix, C. Nduka 24' for Melbourne Victory, R. Bidois 77' for Wellington Phoenix.
How the call on Wellington Phoenix v Melbourne Victory has moved
First published on 4 Oct at 30% / 26% / 44% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 2 updates, it read 29% / 24% / 47%: the biggest move is Melbourne Victory's chance of winning, up 3 points.
- Wellington Phoenix win29%▼ −1
- Draw24%▼ −2
- Melbourne Victory win47%▲ +3
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.