Newcastle Jets vs Macarthur FC A-League prediction & result
Final score: Newcastle Jets 1-1 Macarthur FC.
Before kick-off the model made it 49% Newcastle Jets, 23% draw, 28% Macarthur FC — fair odds of 2.04, 4.35 and 3.57.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
Newcastle Jets at 49%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Newcastle Jets vs Macarthur FC
Line-ups
- 1James Nicholas DelianovG
- 22Joel BertolissioD
- 39Thomas Kevin AquilinaD
- 2Alex GrantD
- 23Daniel WilmeringD
- 14Max BurgessM
- 10Zach CloughM
- 6Zane SchreiberM
- 27Julian RecchiaM
- 43Xavier BertoncelloM
- 9Nikolaos VergosF
- 5Joe ShaughnessyD
- 28Will DobsonM
- 11Joe LolleyF
- 8Patrick WoodF
- 19Alexander BadolatoM
- 40Jordan BaylisG
- 17Ethan DebonoF
- 1Alex RobinsonG
- 25Callum TalbotD
- 3Nara TatsukiD
- 5Jonathan AspropotamitisD
- 21Nathan PaullD
- 22Liam RoseM
- 17Oliver RandazzoM
- 7Connor PainM
- 24Dean BosnjakM
- 11BernardoM
- 16Apostolos StamatelopoulosF
- 18Dylan RoseM
- 10Ryan FraserF
- 8Luke VickeryF
- 9Ben GibsonF
- 99Musa TouréF
- 30Joshua LakkisG
- 31Sebastian KrslovicD
Form going into Newcastle Jets vs Macarthur FC
Newcastle Jets
A-League
- D2-2away to Central Coast Mariners17 October 2026
Macarthur FC
A-League
- W2-1Perth Glory17 October 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
A-League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Newcastle Jets | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 8 | -4 | 2 |
| 7 | Macarthur FC | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 5 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Newcastle Jets vs Macarthur FC
- 2 April 2026Macarthur FC 3–2 Newcastle JetsA-League
- 22 February 2026Newcastle Jets 1–0 Macarthur FCA-League
- 26 December 2025Newcastle Jets 4–5 Macarthur FCA-League
- 24 August 2025Newcastle Jets 3–0 Macarthur FCAustralia Cup
- 28 March 2025Macarthur FC 3–3 Newcastle JetsA-League
- 12 January 2025Newcastle Jets 1–3 Macarthur FCA-League
Leading scorers: Newcastle Jets and Macarthur FC
Newcastle Jets
No player in A-League's leading scorers — 4 league goals as a side.
Macarthur FC
GoalsAssists
- M. Toure11
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Newcastle Jets and Macarthur FC drew 1–1. The model had leaned towards a win for Newcastle Jets at 49% and given a draw 23%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: X. Bertoncello 5' for Newcastle Jets, M. Toure 70' for Macarthur FC.
How the call on Newcastle Jets v Macarthur FC has moved
First published on 10 Oct at 51% / 22% / 27% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 2 updates, it read 49% / 23% / 28%: the biggest move is Newcastle Jets's chance of winning, down 2 points.
- Newcastle Jets win49%▼ −2
- Draw23%▲ +1
- Macarthur FC win28%▲ +1
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.