Motherwell
vs
Aberdeen
Premiership prediction & result
Final score: Motherwell 0-4 Aberdeen.
Before kick-off the model made it 37% Motherwell, 30% draw, 33% Aberdeen — fair odds of 2.70, 3.33 and 3.03. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Motherwell 1.39, Aberdeen 1.24.
Both teams to score: 54%. Over 2.5 goals: 49%, under 2.5: 51%.
Model confidence: Low.
Published · updated
Model insights: Motherwell vs Aberdeen
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Motherwell at 37% here. Across 2477 settled matches, 1764 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.4% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Motherwell vs Aberdeen
Line-ups
- 1A. PaulsenG
- 7T. SparrowD
- 3J. Girdwood-ReichD
- 5M. MoormannD
- 45M. EmmanuelD
- 8L. FadingerM
- 71J. HodgeM
- 18Tawanda Jethro MaswanhiseM
- 11A. LowryM
- 13J. KangaF
- 17R. Charles-CookF
- 21M. ConnellyG
- 63D. LevittM
- 2S. O'DonnellD
- 47S. Palmer-HouldenF
- 19I. SaidF
- 15E. BjörgólfssonF
- 77W. VogtF
- 20Dylan WilliamsD
- 4Jamie Knight-LebelD
- 27M. MüllerG
- 28C. CaddenD
- 23L. MayoD
- 5M. KnoesterD
- 21G. MolloyD
- 24N. Guinness-WalkerD
- 25C. RonanM
- 32A. AremuM
- 40F. MarshallM
- 20T. OlusanyaF
- 15K. NisbetF
- 10A. BriedlM
- 26D. HappeD
- 30D. KleinG
- 22J. MilneD
- 9A. MoulouaF
- 31M. NteloF
- 11Lewis SmithF
- 17S. ArmstrongM
- 7Tony YoganeF
Form going into Motherwell vs Aberdeen
Motherwell
- L0-1away to Rangers5 September 2026
- W3-0Dundee United2 September 2026
- D3-3away to St Mirren30 August 2026
- D0-0Falkirk9 August 2026
Aberdeen
- D0-0Kilmarnock5 September 2026
- L0-3away to Celtic2 September 2026
- L0-1Rangers30 August 2026
- L0-2away to Dundee8 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Premiership table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Motherwell | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 8 | 9 | -1 | 8 |
| 8 | Aberdeen | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 7 | -1 | 7 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Motherwell vs Aberdeen
- 18 February 2026Aberdeen 2–0 MotherwellFA Cup
- 15 February 2026Motherwell 2–0 AberdeenPremiership
- 9 November 2025Aberdeen 1–1 MotherwellPremiership
- 27 September 2025Motherwell 2–0 AberdeenPremiership
- 20 September 2025Aberdeen 0–1 MotherwellLeague Cup
- 29 March 2025Aberdeen 4–1 MotherwellPremiership
Leading scorers: Motherwell and Aberdeen
Motherwell
- Tawanda Jethro Maswanhise1 goals2 assists
- A. Lowry1 goals1 assists
Aberdeen
- K. Nisbet2 goals2 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Expected against actual
Pre-match the model expected 1.39 goals for Motherwell and 1.24 for Aberdeen; the game produced 0 and 4.
Goals
Scorers, in order: Gavin Molloy 38' (Aberdeen), Connor Patrick Ronan 46' (Aberdeen), Ayoub Mouloua 76' (Aberdeen), Kevin Nisbet 87' (Aberdeen).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1168 correct results out of 2477 settled predictions (47%), with 234 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Motherwell the highest probability at 37%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.39 expected goals for Motherwell against 1.24 for Aberdeen. Motherwell's attack/defence rating is 0.57/1.78 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.58/1.5 for Aberdeen.