Lincoln sit 8th in the Championship on 11 points from 7 matches, having scored 6 and conceded 6 — level on goal difference. The model rates their attack at 0.73× the league average and their defence at 1.23× goals conceded, where 1 is average and a lower defensive figure is better — below average at both ends by these numbers. Across their last 5 league matches they have 3 wins and 2 draws, most recently beating Bristol City 1-0 away. That is 1.57 points a match, scoring 0.86 and conceding 0.86 per game across 3 wins, 2 draws and 2 defeats. That leaves them 3 points behind West Ham at the top, in a table of 24. Among the 24 rated sides in the division that is the 13th-best attack and the 4th-best defence. They scored in 1 of those 5 and kept 1 clean sheet. Next they host Swansea in the Championship on 19 September 2026, a match the model gives them 42%.
Model rating
How the model rates this team from its recent expected-goals output, relative to the league average — how the ratings are built.
Championship table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | West Ham | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 20 | 9 | +11 | 14 |
| 2 | Swansea | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 11 | 5 | +6 | 14 |
| 3 | Middlesbrough | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 14 | 10 | +4 | 14 |
| 4 | West Brom | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 10 | 7 | +3 | 14 |
| 5 | QPR | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 8 | 5 | +3 | 12 |
| 6 | Charlton | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 6 | 7 | -1 | 12 |
| 7 | Wolves | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 14 | 10 | +4 | 11 |
| 8 | Lincoln | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 6 | 0 | 11 |
| 9 | Southampton | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 18 | 8 | +10 | 10 |
| 10 | Birmingham | 7 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 10 | 9 | +1 | 10 |
| 11 | Millwall | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 13 | 13 | 0 | 10 |
| 12 | Stoke City | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 11 | 11 | 0 | 10 |
| 13 | Bristol City | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 10 | 12 | -2 | 10 |
| 14 | Norwich | 7 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 13 | 13 | 0 | 9 |
| 15 | Sheffield Utd | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 8 | 9 | -1 | 9 |
| 16 | Blackburn | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 10 | 10 | 0 | 8 |
| 17 | Watford | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 7 | 9 | -2 | 8 |
| 18 | Portsmouth | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 7 | 8 | -1 | 7 |
| 19 | Wrexham | 7 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 7 | 11 | -4 | 7 |
| 20 | Bolton | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 7 | 12 | -5 | 7 |
| 21 | Cardiff | 7 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 7 | 11 | -4 | 4 |
| 22 | Derby | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 6 | 13 | -7 | 4 |
| 23 | Preston | 7 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 6 | 13 | -7 | 3 |
| 24 | Burnley | 7 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 8 | 16 | -8 | 3 |
Lincoln sit 8 of 24, as the table stands today. Every competition we cover.
Recent league form
- W1-0away to Bristol City15 September 2026
- W1-0away to Preston12 September 2026
- D1-1Southampton5 September 2026
- D0-0Blackburn1 September 2026
- W1-0away to Bolton29 August 2026
Last 5 league matches, most recent first.
Next match: Lincoln vs Swansea
Lincoln host Swansea at LNER stadium, Lincoln on 19 September 2026, 14:00 UTC. The model makes it 42% Lincoln, 29% draw and 29% Swansea, with a most likely scoreline of 1-0. It projects 1.56 expected goals for Lincoln against 1.13. Beyond the result it puts both teams to score at 54% and over 2.5 goals at 50%.
Full preview and model analysis for Lincoln vs Swansea