Bristol Rovers vs Cambridge United FA Cup prediction & result
Final score: Bristol Rovers 2-0 Cambridge United.
Before kick-off the model made it 35% Bristol Rovers, 26% draw, 39% Cambridge United — fair odds of 2.86, 3.85 and 2.56.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
Cambridge United at 39%: of 4,828 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.4% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Bristol Rovers vs Cambridge United
Line-ups
- 1Brad YoungG
- 2T. JamesD
- 4K. BalmerD
- 5A. KilgourD
- 14B. PurringtonD
- 22Keenan GoughM
- 6C. MolaM
- 8R. Russell-DennyM
- 24T. LeighM
- 9J. QuigleyF
- 29F. CavegnF
- 28A. AppiahF
- 33R. De HavillandM
- 7S. FordeF
- 10B. KamwaF
- 17C. KellyD
- 23M. Southam-HalesD
- 3J. SparkesD
- 27P. SanyaoluM
- 32Charlie BinnsG
- 1J. EastwoodG
- 2L. BennettD
- 6K. WattsD
- 5P. BauerD
- 22Z. BradshawD
- 8O. MoxonM
- 17P. MpanzuM
- 10B. KnightM
- 44Raees Bangura-WilliamsM
- 11S. KaikaiM
- 9L. AppéréF
- 29S. CurtisD
- 13G. BreezeG
- 7Isaac HeathF
- 38G. HoddleM
- 19S. LaveryF
- 21S. McLoughlinM
- 3Callum PerryD
- 12Callum steadF
- 15Cathal Séan Heffernan AndrewsD
Form going into Bristol Rovers vs Cambridge United
Bristol Rovers
League Two
- L1-3away to Fleetwood Town31 October 2026
- D0-0Swindon Town24 October 2026
- L1-2Salford City20 October 2026
- L0-1away to Shrewsbury17 October 2026
Cambridge United
League One
- L0-3away to Leyton Orient31 October 2026
- D1-1away to Sheffield Wednesday27 October 2026
- L2-3Plymouth24 October 2026
- D2-2Wycombe20 October 2026
- W2-1away to Barnsley17 October 2026
What these results say
- Bristol Rovers did not win any of these 4 matches.
- Bristol Rovers conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.
- Cambridge United conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Cambridge United failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Cambridge United scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Bristol Rovers and Cambridge United in their domestic leagues
| # | Team | League | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | Bristol Rovers | League Two | 15 | 5 | 1 | 9 | 17 | 25 | -8 | 16 |
| 10 | Cambridge United | League One | 14 | 5 | 6 | 3 | 21 | 21 | 0 | 21 |
Each side's position in its own domestic league today, not on the day of this match — they meet here from different competitions. Full tables: League Two · League One
Head-to-head: Bristol Rovers vs Cambridge United
- 14 February 2026Cambridge United 3–1 Bristol RoversLeague Two
- 2 December 2025Bristol Rovers 2–2 Cambridge UnitedEFL Trophy
- 23 August 2025Bristol Rovers 1–0 Cambridge UnitedLeague Two
- 12 August 2025Bristol Rovers 0–2 Cambridge UnitedLeague Cup
- 4 January 2025Cambridge United 0–1 Bristol RoversLeague One
- 31 August 2024Bristol Rovers 2–0 Cambridge UnitedLeague One
Leading scorers: Bristol Rovers and Cambridge United
Bristol Rovers
No player in League Two's leading scorers — 17 league goals as a side.
Cambridge United
GoalsAssists
- B. Knight42
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Bristol Rovers beat Cambridge United 2–0. The model had leaned towards a win for Cambridge United at 39% and given a win for Bristol Rovers 35%. The goals: Reiss-Alexander Russell-Denny 57' for Bristol Rovers, Fabrizio Cavegn 72' for Bristol Rovers.
How the call on Bristol Rovers v Cambridge United has moved
First published on 24 Oct at 32% / 26% / 42% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 3 updates, it read 35% / 26% / 39%: the biggest move is Bristol Rovers's chance of winning, up 3 points.
- Bristol Rovers win35%▲ +3
- Draw26%=
- Cambridge United win39%▼ −3
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.