7 November 2026, 15:00 UTC

Crewe vs AFC Wimbledon FA Cup prediction & result

Alexandra Stadium, Crewe
Full time2 – 1

Final score: Crewe 2-1 AFC Wimbledon.

Before kick-off the model made it 48% Crewe, 28% draw, 24% AFC Wimbledon — fair odds of 2.08, 3.57 and 4.17.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Crewe at 48%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Crewe97%Draw3%AFC Wimbledon0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

⚽Charlie McNeillassist: Conor Thomas
12'
Jordan Gibson
18'
61'
Alistair Smith
⚽Conor Thomas
62'
66'
🔁Harry Cornickout: Aron Sasu
66'
🔁Ollie Harrisonout: Callum Maycock
67'
🔁Myles Hippolyteout: Zack Nelson
Reece Hutchinson
70'
🔁Charlie McNeillout: Adrien thibaut
71'
🔁Conor Thomasout: Owen lunt
71'
🔁Jordan Gibsonout: Calum·Agius
76'
🔁Josh Marchout: Joel Tabiner
76'
Joe White
78'
79'
🔁Alistair Smithout: Andy Yiadom
79'
🔁Steven Sessegnonout: Donnell McNeilly
82'
⚽Andy Yiadomassist: Donnell McNeilly
84'
Callum Maycock
87'
James Tilley
Adrien thibaut
89'
L. Billington
90+1'
🔁Joe Whiteout: Kyle Ure
90+3'

Match stats — Crewe vs AFC Wimbledon

58%Possession42%
7Shots12
5On target4
3Corners10

Line-ups

Crewe 4-2-3-1
  • 13I. LawlorG
  • 2L. BillingtonD
  • 6L. OffordD
  • 12J. StephensonD
  • 3R. HutchinsonD
  • 8C. ThomasM
  • 17M. HolíčekM
  • 9J. MarchM
  • 10J. WhiteM
  • 14J. GibsonM
  • 23C. McNeillF
Substitutes
  • 20Calum AgiusF
  • 1T. BoothG
  • 19O. LuntM
  • 11J. TabinerM
  • 29A. ThibautF
  • 32L. MooreM
  • 24James JonesM
  • 30Stan DanceyD
  • 4Kyle UreM
Coach: Lee Bell
AFC Wimbledon 5-3-2
  • 39J. BursikG
  • 7J. TilleyD
  • 33I. OgundereD
  • 6R. JohnsonD
  • 3S. SeddonD
  • 2S. SessegnonD
  • 12A. SmithM
  • 5O. HarrisonM
  • 21M. HippolyteM
  • 9J. StockleyF
  • 23H. CornickF
Substitutes
  • 15F. SimmondsD
  • 17A. YiadomD
  • 10Z. NelsonM
  • 19Donnell McNeillyF
  • 20J. McDonnellG
  • 29A. SasuF
  • 8C. MaycockM
  • 34H. HedgesM
  • 22R. HoranD
Coach: J. Jackson

Form going into Crewe vs AFC Wimbledon

Crewe

League Two

  • D1-1Barnet31 October 2026
  • L1-5away to Chesterfield24 October 2026
  • L0-2away to Exeter City20 October 2026
  • W3-2Rochdale17 October 2026

AFC Wimbledon

League One

  • L1-2away to Stockport County31 October 2026
  • D1-1Wycombe24 October 2026
  • L0-3Mansfield Town20 October 2026
  • L0-5away to Sheffield Wednesday17 October 2026

What these results say

  • Crewe conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
  • Crewe failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.
  • Crewe scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
  • AFC Wimbledon did not win any of these 4 matches.
  • AFC Wimbledon conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
  • 3 of these 4 matches for AFC Wimbledon had three goals or more.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Crewe and AFC Wimbledon in their domestic leagues

#TeamLeaguePWDLGFGAGDPts
5CreweLeague Two155821919023
17AFC WimbledonLeague One144461021-1116

Each side's position in its own domestic league today, not on the day of this match — they meet here from different competitions. Full tables: League Two · League One

Head-to-head: Crewe vs AFC Wimbledon

  • 11 February 2025AFC Wimbledon 3–0 CreweLeague Two
  • 28 January 2025Crewe 1–1 AFC WimbledonLeague Two
  • 23 March 2024Crewe 1–1 AFC WimbledonLeague Two
  • 16 September 2023AFC Wimbledon 2–2 CreweLeague Two
  • 7 January 2023Crewe 0–0 AFC WimbledonLeague Two
  • 25 October 2022AFC Wimbledon 1–1 CreweLeague Two

Leading scorers: Crewe and AFC Wimbledon

Crewe

GoalsAssists

  • J. Gibson52

AFC Wimbledon

GoalsAssists

  • J. Stockley61

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Crewe beat AFC Wimbledon 2–1. The model had made a win for Crewe its most likely outcome, at 48%, so the call held; the score it named was 1–0. The goals: Charlie McNeill 12' for Crewe, Conor Thomas 62' for Crewe, Andy Yiadom 82' for AFC Wimbledon.

How the call on Crewe v AFC Wimbledon has moved

First published on 24 Oct at 52% / 27% / 21% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 2 updates, it read 48% / 28% / 24%: the biggest move is Crewe's chance of winning, down 4 points.

  1. Crewe win48%▼ −4
  2. Draw28%▲ +1
  3. AFC Wimbledon win24%▲ +3

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.