Barnet vs Tranmere FA Cup prediction & result
Final score: Barnet 3-0 Tranmere.
Before kick-off the model made it 61% Barnet, 21% draw, 18% Tranmere — fair odds of 1.64, 4.76 and 5.56.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
Barnet at 61%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Barnet vs Tranmere
Line-ups
- 13M. CoxG
- 3R. Crichlow-NobleD
- 4D. CollingeD
- 25N. TavaresD
- 5A. SeniorM
- 22O. GallagherM
- 14B. ComleyM
- 11I. KanuM
- 23J. ReevesM
- 8C. LakinM
- 9J. MaskellF
- 17D. AjayiF
- 1T. Ashby-HammondG
- 30M. KenlockD
- 7T. KnowlesF
- 10N. OfoborhM
- 18K. SmithD
- 6Z. WilliamsD
- 37Aaron Liwala-LukizalamuM
- 32Isiah Noel WilliamsF
- 1L. McGeeG
- 22L. O'ConnorD
- 5N. SmithD
- 4J. TurnbullD
- 14O. ScottD
- 6W. VaulksM
- 11T. ConlonM
- 7Charlie Jay WhitakerM
- 10T. InceM
- 29D. JonesM
- 9J. IronsideF
- 2J. SeniorD
- 3J. SlaterD
- 20Charlie VeeversM
- 44R. WatsonM
- 30G. NevettD
- 12H. MaleG
- 24David KamaraF
- 16B. FaulknerD
- 19C. Baker-RichardsonF
Form going into Barnet vs Tranmere
Barnet
League Two
- D1-1away to Crewe31 October 2026
- W3-1York27 October 2026
- D1-1Oldham24 October 2026
- L1-3Swindon Town20 October 2026
- W2-1away to Tranmere17 October 2026
Tranmere
League Two
- W3-1Cheltenham31 October 2026
- D1-1away to Crawley Town24 October 2026
- W1-0away to Northampton20 October 2026
- L1-2Barnet17 October 2026
What these results say
- Barnet scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Barnet conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Both sides scored in every one of these 5 matches for Barnet.
- Tranmere scored in every one of these 4 matches.
- Tranmere conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.
- Both sides scored in 3 of these 4 matches for Tranmere.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
League Two table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Barnet | 13 | 7 | 5 | 1 | 28 | 18 | +10 | 26 |
| 15 | Tranmere | 15 | 4 | 7 | 4 | 19 | 18 | +1 | 19 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Barnet vs Tranmere
- 17 October 2026Tranmere 1–2 BarnetLeague Two
- 27 January 2026Barnet 1–0 TranmereLeague Two
- 11 October 2025Tranmere 0–2 BarnetLeague Two
Leading scorers: Barnet and Tranmere
Barnet
GoalsAssists
- K. Tshimanga104
- C. Lakin63
Tranmere
GoalsAssists
- D. Jones50
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Barnet beat Tranmere 3–0. The model had made a win for Barnet its most likely outcome, at 61%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–1. The goals: Kane Smith 80' for Barnet, Nnamdi Ofoborh 90' for Barnet, Damola Ajayi 90+6' for Barnet.
How the call on Barnet v Tranmere has moved
First published on 24 Oct at 64% / 19% / 17% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 3 updates, it read 61% / 21% / 18%: the biggest move is Barnet's chance of winning, down 3 points.
- Barnet win61%▼ −3
- Draw21%▲ +2
- Tranmere win18%▲ +1
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.