Brondby vs Aarhus Superliga prediction & result
Final score: Brondby 2-0 Aarhus.
Before kick-off the model made it 37% Brondby, 27% draw, 36% Aarhus — fair odds of 2.70, 3.70 and 2.78.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
Brondby at 37%: of 4,828 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.4% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Brondby vs Aarhus
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1P. PentzG
- 3Christopher OlivierD
- 32F. AlvesD
- 4L. BinksD
- 24M. DivkovićD
- 99B. SliszM
- 18M. EjdumM
- 21M. YounisM
- 29M. Frøkjær-JensenM
- 7O. HyseniM
- 38J. AmbækF
- 11F. BundgaardF
- 2O. VilladsenD
- 50W. Sonne SchmidG
- 10D. WassM
- 15C. WintherM
- 19S. FukudaF
- 17E. DennisF
- 37R. CanutD
- 9P. MortensenF
- 1J. HansenG
- 14T. MølgaardD
- 5F. TingagerD
- 19E. KahlD
- 26J. AndersenM
- 10Kristian Fredrik Malt ArnstadM
- 7M. SolbakkenM
- 39Frederik EmmeryM
- 31T. BechM
- 18C. McCowattM
- 28J. BogereF
- 33Luka CalløD
- 21M. Hedenstad ChristiansenG
- 16J. JønssonM
- 20T. KristjánssonF
- 11G. LinksM
- 25C. RöslerD
- 27S. TchamcheF
- 29R. CarstensenD
- 8S. JørgensenM
Form going into Brondby vs Aarhus
Brondby
Superliga
- W3-1away to Randers FC23 October 2026
- L1-2away to Odense18 October 2026
- W5-2Lyngby11 October 2026
Aarhus
Superliga
- W2-1Viborg25 October 2026
- D1-1away to FC Copenhagen18 October 2026
- W3-0Sonderjyske12 October 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Superliga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Brondby | 14 | 7 | 1 | 6 | 23 | 21 | +2 | 22 |
| 8 | Aarhus | 14 | 3 | 6 | 5 | 19 | 21 | -2 | 15 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Brondby vs Aarhus
- 25 July 2026Aarhus 1–1 BrondbySuperliga
- 10 May 2026Brondby 0–2 AarhusSuperliga
- 22 March 2026Aarhus 0–0 BrondbySuperliga
- 19 October 2025Brondby 3–3 AarhusSuperliga
- 21 September 2025Aarhus 1–0 BrondbySuperliga
- 25 May 2025Aarhus 2–3 BrondbySuperliga
Leading scorers: Brondby and Aarhus
Brondby
GoalsAssists
- M. Frøkjær-Jensen51
- O. Hyseni43
Aarhus
GoalsAssists
- J. Serra50
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Brondby beat Aarhus 2–0. The model had made a win for Brondby its most likely outcome, at 37%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–1. The goals: Marko Divković 31' for Brondby, Mads Frokjaer-Jensen 82' for Brondby. On expected goals it finished 2.76–1.01.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Brondby a 77.1% chance to finish in the top six: 89.1% after a win, 77.2% after a draw, 67.2% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 89.1%, 12 points higher than before the match.
For Aarhus the question was the chance to finish in the top six, 42.1% going in: 55.7% after a win, 39.4% after a draw, 29.0% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 29.0%, 13.1 points lower than before the match.
Read from our Superliga season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.