1 November 2026, 13:00 UTC

Viborg vs AC Horsens Superliga prediction & result

Energi Viborg Arena, Viborg
Referee: Aydin Uslu
Full time1 – 0

Final score: Viborg 1-0 AC Horsens.

Before kick-off the model made it 44% Viborg, 25% draw, 31% AC Horsens — fair odds of 2.27, 4.00 and 3.23.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Viborg at 44%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Viborg96%Draw4%AC Horsens0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

Mads Søndergaard Clausen
24'
41'
Kingsley Bimpong
🔁Mads Søndergaard Clausenout: Ruben Kristensen Alte
45'
53'
🔁Yamirou Ouorouout: John Batigi
Ruben Kristensen Alte
58'
🔁Charly Ngos Nouck Hornemanout: Lasso Coulibaly
67'
⚽Dorian Hanza
68'
77'
🔁Kingsley Bimpongout: Jimi Tauriainen
77'
🔁Abdul Moroout: Adrian Justinussen
77'
🔁Victor Pálssonout: Seniko Doua
🔁Dorian Hanzaout: Adam Kleis-Kristoffersen
83'
🔁Sami Jalal Karchoudout: Philip Keller
83'
🔁Hjalte Bidstrupout: Valgeir Lunddal Fridriksson
83'
87'
🔁Ivan Milićevićout: Fallou Sene

Match stats — Viborg vs AC Horsens

54%Possession46%
22Shots13
9On target2
10Corners3
3.2xG0.72

Goals against chances

Viborg1 from 3.20 xGless than the chances were worth
AC Horsens0 from 0.72 xGless than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Viborg 4-3-3
  • 20K. KiilerichG
  • 26Hjalte BidstrupD
  • 4L. KirkegaardD
  • 5Ž. ZaletelD
  • 23O. BundgaardD
  • 8A. BeckM
  • 13J. GrønningM
  • 6M. SøndergaardM
  • 10S. JalalF
  • 19Dorian HanzaF
  • 11C. NouckF
Substitutes
  • 25GiulioF
  • 33Frederik DamkjerM
  • 28L. CoulibalyM
  • 24D. AnyembeD
  • 34Philip KellerM
  • 36Adam Kleis-KristoffersenF
  • 18R. AlteM
  • 1L. LundG
  • 3V. Lunddal FriðrikssonD
Coach: Nickolai Lund
AC Horsens 4-2-3-1
  • 1M. DelačG
  • 26V. PálssonD
  • 35M. KupijbidaD
  • 6J. BondeD
  • 7I. MiličevićD
  • 16A. MoroM
  • 20K. LusavecM
  • 41Kingsley BimpongM
  • 14J. MadsenM
  • 27Y. OuorouM
  • 11K. EhibhatiomhanF
Substitutes
  • 5A. BruusD
  • 36C. JorgensenM
  • 30S. DouaD
  • 39A. MandrupD
  • 15A. JustinussenF
  • 25Fallou SeneF
  • 23D. SmarschG
  • 22J. BatigiF
  • 19Jimi Weikko TauriainenM
Coach: Niki Zimling

Form going into Viborg vs AC Horsens

Viborg

Superliga

  • L1-2away to Aarhus25 October 2026
  • L1-2FC Midtjylland19 October 2026
  • W2-0away to Randers FC11 October 2026

AC Horsens

Superliga

  • W5-1Sonderjyske25 October 2026
  • D0-0Randers FC16 October 2026
  • D3-3away to Silkeborg11 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Superliga table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
3Viborg148242213+926
7AC Horsens144462323016

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Viborg vs AC Horsens

  • 28 August 2026AC Horsens 2–3 ViborgSuperliga
  • 4 September 2025AC Horsens 0–1 ViborgDBU Pokalen
  • 4 September 2024AC Horsens 0–4 ViborgDBU Pokalen
  • 25 January 2024Viborg 4–2 AC HorsensFriendlies Clubs
  • 26 February 2023AC Horsens 0–3 ViborgSuperliga
  • 12 September 2022Viborg 2–1 AC HorsensSuperliga

Leading scorers: Viborg and AC Horsens

Viborg

GoalsAssists

  • Dorian Hanza61
  • M. Søndergaard43
  • C. Nouck33

AC Horsens

GoalsAssists

  • K. Ehibhatiomhan40

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Viborg beat AC Horsens 1–0. The model had made a win for Viborg its most likely outcome, at 44%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–1. The goal: Dorian Hanza 68' for Viborg. On expected goals it finished 3.20–0.72.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Viborg a 92.9% chance to finish in the top six: 97.5% after a win, 92.6% after a draw, 87.6% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 97.5%, 4.6 points higher than before the match.

For AC Horsens the question was the chance to finish in the top six, 59.4% going in: 72.3% after a win, 58.6% after a draw, 51.6% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 51.6%, 7.8 points lower than before the match.

Read from our Superliga season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Viborg v AC Horsens has moved

First published on 18 Oct at 49% / 24% / 27% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 4 updates, it read 44% / 25% / 31%: the biggest move is Viborg's chance of winning, down 5 points.

  1. Viborg win44%▼ −5
  2. Draw25%▲ +1
  3. AC Horsens win31%▲ +4

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.