1 November 2026, 14:00 UTC

HNK Rijeka vs NK Varazdin HNL prediction & result

Stadion HNK Rijeka, Rijeka
Referee: Duje Strukan
Full time1 – 1

Final score: HNK Rijeka 1-1 NK Varazdin.

Before kick-off the model made it 43% HNK Rijeka, 30% draw, 27% NK Varazdin — fair odds of 2.33, 3.33 and 3.70.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

HNK Rijeka at 43%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

HNK Rijeka4%Draw94%NK Varazdin2%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

⚽Toni Frukassist: Ante Orec
17'
Anel Husic
35'
37'
⚽Luka Mamić (pen)
45'
🔁Sven Lesjakout: Matej Vuk
Ante Orec
49'
50'
⚽Luka Mamić
🔁Mohammad Mohebbiout: Amer Gojak
61'
75'
🔁Gregor Sikošekout: Luka Posinković
🔁Mladen Devetakout: Justas Lasickas
80'
🔁D. Adu-Adjeiout: Jakov Puljić
80'
80'
🔁Aleksa Latkovicout: Ivan Posavec
Samuele Vignato
85'
88'
🔁Luka Mamićout: David Puclin
88'
🔁Iuri Tavaresout: Mateo Barać
🔁Samuele Vignatoout: Ante Matej Juric
90'
Branko Pavic
90'
90+3'
Novak Tepsic
90+3'
Novak Tepsic
90+3'
Mateo Barać

Match stats — HNK Rijeka vs NK Varazdin

69%Possession31%
17Shots3
4On target2
12Corners0
1.24xG0.89

Goals against chances

HNK Rijeka1 from 1.24 xGabout what the chances were worth
NK Varazdin1 from 0.89 xGabout what the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

HNK Rijeka 4-2-3-1
  • 13I. VekičG
  • 22A. OrečD
  • 45A. MajstorovićD
  • 51A. HusicD
  • 34M. DevetakD
  • 26Tiago DantasM
  • 6B. PavićM
  • 9M. MohebiM
  • 10T. FrukM
  • 19S. VignatoM
  • 18D. Adu-AdjeiF
Substitutes
  • 91N. BodetićD
  • 99A. TodorovićG
  • 8I. ĆubelićM
  • 3M. ŽivkovićD
  • 5A. BarcoM
  • 14A. GojakM
  • 4N. JankovićM
  • 77A. JuričF
  • 7Y. KabadayıF
Coach: M. Kek
NK Varazdin 4-2-3-1
  • 33J. SilićG
  • 23F. MaglicaD
  • 5Sven LesjakD
  • 14R. PunčecD
  • 16N. TepšićD
  • 28I. CanjugaM
  • 8T. DuvnjakM
  • 10A. LatkovićM
  • 22L. MamićM
  • 20G. SikošekM
  • 38Iuri TavaresF
Substitutes
  • 44M. BaraćD
  • 12P. BočkajD
  • 11E. UchegbuF
  • 9S. JurićF
  • 19L. LukanićM
  • 24M. MarinaM
  • 1R. McCrorieG
  • 21I. PosavecM
  • 30L. PosinkovicD
Coach: N. Šafarić

Form going into HNK Rijeka vs NK Varazdin

HNK Rijeka

HNL

  • L1-2away to Dinamo Zagreb27 October 2026
  • W2-1away to Rudes16 October 2026
  • L1-4away to NK Slaven Belupo11 October 2026

NK Varazdin

HNL

  • L1-2NK Slaven Belupo24 October 2026
  • L0-1away to HNK Hajduk Split18 October 2026
  • W1-0away to NK Lokomotiva Zagreb11 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

HNL table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
6HNK Rijeka125341918+118
5NK Varazdin135441714+319

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: HNK Rijeka vs NK Varazdin

  • 16 August 2026NK Varazdin 2–0 HNK RijekaHNL
  • 22 April 2026NK Varazdin 1–0 HNK RijekaHNL
  • 14 February 2026HNK Rijeka 3–1 NK VarazdinHNL
  • 9 November 2025NK Varazdin 1–0 HNK RijekaHNL
  • 24 August 2025HNK Rijeka 1–2 NK VarazdinHNL
  • 13 April 2025HNK Rijeka 1–0 NK VarazdinHNL

Leading scorers: HNK Rijeka and NK Varazdin

HNK Rijeka

GoalsAssists

  • T. Fruk54
  • D. Adu-Adjei43
  • S. Vignato41

NK Varazdin

GoalsAssists

  • L. Mamić60
  • I. Canjuga33

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

HNK Rijeka and NK Varazdin drew 1–1. The model had leaned towards a win for HNK Rijeka at 43% and given a draw 30%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one. The goals: Toni Fruk 17' for HNK Rijeka, Luka Mamić 50' for NK Varazdin. Sent off: Novak Tepsic (NK Varazdin) 90+3'. On expected goals it finished 1.24–0.89.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave HNK Rijeka a 75.1% chance to finish in the top four: 80.4% after a win, 73.8% after a draw, 67.4% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 73.8%, 1.3 points lower than before the match.

For NK Varazdin the question was the chance to finish in the top four, 61.9% going in: 72.2% after a win, 62.4% after a draw, 56.2% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 62.4%, 0.5 points higher than before the match.

Read from our HNL season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on HNK Rijeka v NK Varazdin has moved

First published on 17 Oct at 40% / 31% / 29% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 5 updates, it read 43% / 30% / 27%: the biggest move is HNK Rijeka's chance of winning, up 3 points.

  1. HNK Rijeka win43%▲ +3
  2. Draw30%▼ −1
  3. NK Varazdin win27%▼ −2

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.