1 November 2026, 17:00 UTC

NK Lokomotiva Zagreb vs NK Osijek HNL prediction & result

Stadion Maksimir, Zagreb
Referee: Marko Crnojevic
Full time1 – 3

Final score: NK Lokomotiva Zagreb 1-3 NK Osijek.

Before kick-off the model made it 42% NK Lokomotiva Zagreb, 30% draw, 28% NK Osijek — fair odds of 2.38, 3.33 and 3.57.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

NK Lokomotiva Zagreb at 42%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

NK Lokomotiva Zagreb0%Draw4%NK Osijek96%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

7'
⚽Luka Tunjicassist: Niko Farkas
21'
David Kalem
36'
⚽Niko Farkasassist: David Kalem
38'
Alejandro Cantero
🔁Leon Belcarout: Mirko Marić
45'
45'
🔁Alejandro Canteroout: Luka Posavec
🔁Dominik Thaqiout: Wajdi Sahli
56'
58'
Luka Jelenic
Feta Fetai
58'
⚽Mirko Marić
60'
69'
🔁Admir Ljatifiout: Balazs Bakti
🔁Feta Fetaiout: Erbol Atabaev
76'
83'
🔁Armando Leónout: Miguel Ângelo Bastos Melo
85'
Niko Farkas
🔁Dušan Vukovićout: Noel Durkovic
86'
90+1'
🔁Luka Tunjicout: Senad Mustafic
90+1'
🔁Niko Farkasout: Ivan Barić
90+3'
•Senad Mustafic
90+3'
⚽Miguel Ângelo Bastos Meloassist: Senad Mustafic

Match stats — NK Lokomotiva Zagreb vs NK Osijek

56%Possession44%
15Shots12
5On target6
10Corners2
1.91xG2.21

Goals against chances

NK Lokomotiva Zagreb1 from 1.91 xGless than the chances were worth
NK Osijek3 from 2.21 xGmore than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

NK Lokomotiva Zagreb 4-2-3-1
  • 12J. PosavecG
  • 4T. TriantafyllouD
  • 2J. GurlicaD
  • 5M. ČabrajaD
  • 20K. ČabrajićD
  • 8I. KatićM
  • 6F. FetaiM
  • 15Dominik ThaqiM
  • 9L. BelcarM
  • 7D. VukovićM
  • 11Lovre KulušićF
Substitutes
  • 28N. ĐurkovićF
  • 19W. SahliM
  • 26M. DardanM
  • 24M. MarićF
  • 18E. AtabaevM
  • 32L. SavatovićG
  • 25P. SmiljanicM
  • 10M. SubotićM
  • 29J. VasiljM
Coach: N. Jelavić
NK Osijek 4-2-3-1
  • 31M. MalenicaG
  • 22J. KruiverD
  • 49Ivano KolarikD
  • 26L. JelenićD
  • 47D. KalemD
  • 18Niko FarkašM
  • 16O. PetrusenkoM
  • 21CanteroM
  • 11Luka TunjicM
  • 30A. LjatifiM
  • 79A. LeónF
Substitutes
  • 9I. BarićF
  • 99BaleloF
  • 1N. CurcijaG
  • 7I. DolčekF
  • 77S. MustaficD
  • 24L. PosavecD
  • 17Mateo SaboD
  • 42Karlo TomaševićM
  • 46Petar TurićF
Coach: Fede Bessone

Form going into NK Lokomotiva Zagreb vs NK Osijek

NK Lokomotiva Zagreb

HNL

  • D0-0away to HNK Gorica24 October 2026
  • W2-0Istra 196117 October 2026
  • L0-1NK Varazdin11 October 2026

NK Osijek

HNL

  • L0-1Rudes25 October 2026
  • D1-1HNK Gorica17 October 2026
  • L1-3Istra 196110 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

HNL table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
9NK Lokomotiva Zagreb133281421-711
3NK Osijek136252218+420

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: NK Lokomotiva Zagreb vs NK Osijek

  • 15 August 2026NK Osijek 1–0 NK Lokomotiva ZagrebHNL
  • 25 April 2026NK Osijek 0–0 NK Lokomotiva ZagrebHNL
  • 21 February 2026NK Lokomotiva Zagreb 3–1 NK OsijekHNL
  • 23 November 2025NK Osijek 1–1 NK Lokomotiva ZagrebHNL
  • 31 August 2025NK Lokomotiva Zagreb 1–1 NK OsijekHNL
  • 9 May 2025NK Osijek 1–1 NK Lokomotiva ZagrebHNL

Leading scorers: NK Lokomotiva Zagreb and NK Osijek

NK Lokomotiva Zagreb

GoalsAssists

  • D. Vuković32

NK Osijek

GoalsAssists

  • A. León61
  • N. Omerović50

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

NK Osijek won 3–1 at NK Lokomotiva Zagreb. The model had leaned towards a win for NK Lokomotiva Zagreb at 42% and given a win for NK Osijek 28%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: Luka Tunjic 7' for NK Osijek, Niko Farkas 36' for NK Osijek, Mirko Marić 60' for NK Lokomotiva Zagreb, Miguel Ângelo Bastos Melo 90+3' for NK Osijek. On expected goals it finished 1.91–2.21.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave NK Lokomotiva Zagreb a 9.6% chance to finish in the bottom one: 6.9% after a win, 9.9% after a draw, 12.8% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 12.8%, 3.2 points higher than before the match.

For NK Osijek the question was the chance to finish in the top four, 17.8% going in: 22.8% after a win, 16.7% after a draw, 15.0% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 22.8%, 5 points higher than before the match.

Read from our HNL season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on NK Lokomotiva Zagreb v NK Osijek has moved

First published on 17 Oct at 40% / 30% / 30% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 7 updates, it read 42% / 30% / 28%: the biggest move is NK Lokomotiva Zagreb's chance of winning, up 2 points.

  1. NK Lokomotiva Zagreb win42%▲ +2
  2. Draw30%=
  3. NK Osijek win28%▼ −2

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.