29 August 2026, 18:30 UTC

BSC Young Boys vs FC Basel 1893 Super League prediction & result

Stadion Wankdorf, Bern
Full time3 – 3

Final score: BSC Young Boys 3-3 FC Basel 1893.

Before kick-off the model made it 51% BSC Young Boys, 24% draw, 25% FC Basel 1893 — fair odds of 1.96, 4.17 and 4.00. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts BSC Young Boys at 51% here. Across 2485 settled matches, 635 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 52.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

BSC Young Boys5%Draw92%FC Basel 18933%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 6 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

⚽J. Monteiro
7'
⚽S. Essendeassist: L. Blum
14'
32'
⚽K. Olaigbeassist: A. Victory
33'
🔁L. Thorellout: X. Shaqiri
37'
⚽A. Sowassist: Metinho
39'
Akpe Victory
44'
Metinho
Christian Fassnacht
45'
⚽A. Sanchesassist: J. Monteiro
45'
🔁S. Bukinacout: I. Schmidt
67'
🔁C. Fassnachtout: A. Virginius
68'
71'
⚽A. Victoryassist: F. Daniliuc
75'
🔁Metinhoout: J. Harder
75'
🔁K. Olaigbeout: P. Otele
Joël Monteiro
76'
🔁E. Fernandesout: D. Pech
79'
🔁J. Monteiroout: E. Etoski
79'
🔁S. Essendeout: M. K. Sene
79'
87'
🔁Z. Celarout: G. Koloto
Lewin Blum
89'

Match stats — BSC Young Boys vs FC Basel 1893

53%Possession47%
21Shots12
9On target4
9Corners3
1.77xG1.28

Goals against chances

BSC Young Boys3 from 1.77 xGmore than the chances were worth
FC Basel 18933 from 1.28 xGmore than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

BSC Young Boys 4-4-1-1
  • 1M. KellerG
  • 27L. BlumD
  • 30S. LauperD
  • 23L. BenitoD
  • 33S. BukinacD
  • 16C. FassnachtM
  • 8A. GigovicM
  • 6E. FernandesM
  • 11J. MonteiroM
  • 10A. SanchesF
  • 99S. EssendeF
Substitutes
  • 18J. MallG
  • 5G. WuthrichD
  • 17S. JankoD
  • 22I. SchmidtD
  • 52N. TschanzM
  • 7A. VirginiusF
  • 13D. PechM
  • 34E. EtoskiM
  • 9M. K. SeneF
Coach: Gerardo Seoane
FC Basel 1893 4-3-3
  • 13M. SalviG
  • 6K. TsunemotoD
  • 24F. DaniliucD
  • 55A. VictoryD
  • 29M. CisseD
  • 5MetinhoM
  • 4B. OmeragicM
  • 8L. ThorellM
  • 18A. SowF
  • 9Z. CelarF
  • 11K. OlaigbeF
Substitutes
  • 49RenatoG
  • 27K. RueggD
  • 3N. VouillozD
  • 10X. ShaqiriM
  • 14A. BacaninM
  • 44J. HarderM
  • 37G. KolotoF
  • 7P. OteleF
  • 17A. MaloudaF
Coach: Stephan Lichtsteiner

Form going into BSC Young Boys vs FC Basel 1893

BSC Young Boys

  • W4-2FC Vaduz23 August 2026

FC Basel 1893

  • W2-1away to FC Zurich22 August 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

Super League table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
3BSC Young Boys84402816+1216
4FC Basel 189384131614+213

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: BSC Young Boys vs FC Basel 1893

  • 29 August 2026BSC Young Boys 3–3 FC Basel 1893Super League
  • 10 May 2026BSC Young Boys 3–0 FC Basel 1893Super League
  • 4 April 2026FC Basel 1893 3–3 BSC Young BoysSuper League
  • 2 November 2025BSC Young Boys 0–0 FC Basel 1893Super League
  • 6 August 2025FC Basel 1893 4–1 BSC Young BoysSuper League
  • 18 May 2025BSC Young Boys 6–2 FC Basel 1893Super League

Leading scorers: BSC Young Boys and FC Basel 1893

BSC Young Boys

  • S. Essende8 goals3 assists
  • C. Fassnacht4 goals1 assists
  • A. Sanches3 goals4 assists

FC Basel 1893

  • Ž. Celar5 goals1 assists
  • A. Sow3 goals4 assists
  • X. Shaqiri3 goals1 assists

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.