Henan Jianye vs Chongqing Tongliang Long Super League prediction & result
Final score: Henan Jianye 1-1 Chongqing Tongliang Long.
Before kick-off the model made it 45% Henan Jianye, 29% draw, 26% Chongqing Tongliang Long — fair odds of 2.22, 3.45 and 3.85.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
Henan Jianye at 45%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Henan Jianye vs Chongqing Tongliang Long
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 33Shi ChenglongG
- 4Shinar YeljanD
- 2Iago MaidanaD
- 23Lucas MaiaD
- 22Huang RuifengD
- 6Wang ShangyuanM
- 21He ChaoM
- 8Pedro MaranhaoM
- 10Bruno NazarioM
- 7Zhong YihaoM
- 9GustavoF
- 18Wang GuomingG
- 17Wang JinshuaiG
- 5Liu JiahuiD
- 27Liu YixinD
- 3O. GerbigD
- 24Yin CongyaoF
- 25Yang YilinM
- 16Yang KuoD
- 13A. AbudulamM
- 31Wu ZitongG
- 15Chen ChunxinD
- 38Ruan QilongD
- 6Jin PengxiangD
- 3Zhang YingkaiD
- 37Wei SuoweiD
- 21Liu JialeM
- 16Zhang ZhixiongM
- 27Wu YongqiangM
- 19Du YuezhengF
- 7Xiang YuwangF
- 1Yao HaoyangG
- 33LucaoD
- 26He XiaoqiangD
- 32M. NgadeuD
- 4Yue RuijieD
- 10I. AmadouM
- 9G. CimpanuF
- 18Liang WeipengF
- 24Liu MingshiD
Form going into Henan Jianye vs Chongqing Tongliang Long
Henan Jianye
All competitions we cover
- D4-4away to Shenyang Urban23 August 2026
- L1-4away to Shanghai Shenhua15 August 2026
- D0-0Qingdao Youth Island9 August 2026
Chongqing Tongliang Long
All competitions we cover
- L0-1Dalian Zhixing23 August 2026
- D0-0away to Qingdao Youth Island14 August 2026
- L2-3SHANGHAI SIPG9 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
China Super League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Henan Jianye | 30 | 8 | 10 | 12 | 38 | 46 | -8 | 28 |
| 10 | Chongqing Tongliang Long | 30 | 8 | 12 | 10 | 31 | 35 | -4 | 36 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Leading scorers: Henan Jianye and Chongqing Tongliang Long
Henan Jianye
GoalsAssists
- Gustavo156
- Bruno Nazário106
Chongqing Tongliang Long
No player in Super League's leading scorers — 31 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Henan Jianye and Chongqing Tongliang Long drew 1–1. The model had leaned towards a win for Henan Jianye at 45% and given a draw 29%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one. The goals: Gustavo 17' for Henan Jianye, Ruan Qilong 58' for Chongqing Tongliang Long. On expected goals it finished 1.31–0.55.