BSC Young Boys vs FC Vaduz Super League prediction & result
Final score: BSC Young Boys 4-2 FC Vaduz.
Before kick-off the model made it 77% BSC Young Boys, 12% draw, 11% FC Vaduz — fair odds of 1.30, 8.33 and 9.09. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 3-1.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts BSC Young Boys at 77% here. Across 2485 settled matches, 276 forecasts have landed in the 65–100% band; those outcomes actually happened 60.1% of the time, against an average forecast of 74.5%. In this range the model is over-confident, so read the figure above as optimistic rather than literal.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 6 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — BSC Young Boys vs FC Vaduz
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1Marvin KellerG
- 27Lewin BlumD
- 5Gregory WüthrichD
- 23Loris BenitoD
- 33Stefan BukinacD
- 10Alvyn SanchesM
- 13Dominik PechM
- 8Armin GigovićM
- 11Joël MonteiroM
- 99Samuel EssendeF
- 9Mamadou Kaly SeneF
- 16Christian FassnachtM
- 17Saidy JankoD
- 30Sandro LauperM
- 34Edin EtoskiM
- 52Noe TschanzM
- 18Joel MallG
- 3Jaouen HadjamD
- 66Rhodri SmithD
- 58Loris MacumiM
- 25Leon SchaffranG
- 4Nicolas HaslerD
- 6Denis SimaniD
- 5Liridon BerishaD
- 29Malik SawadogoD
- 17Julian StarkM
- 20Luca MackM
- 10Juan CabreraM
- 28Miloš CocićM
- 9Marcel MonsbergerF
- 11Lutfi DalipiF
- 7Dominik SchwizerM
- 22Mischa EberhardM
- 18Daniel KasperF
- 27Niklas LangD
- 30Mattia WalkerM
- 1Benjamin BüchelG
- 14Mischa BeeliD
- 23Mats HammerichM
- 19Dejan ĐokićF
Form going into BSC Young Boys vs FC Vaduz
BSC Young Boys
- D2-2away to Lausanne8 August 2026
- W6-0away to FC Thun1 August 2026
- W4-2FC Sion26 July 2026
FC Vaduz
- D2-2Inter Turku13 August 2026
- L2-3away to FC Sion9 August 2026
- L1-2away to Inter Turku6 August 2026
- L2-3FC St. Gallen2 August 2026
- W2-0away to Atlètic Club d'Escaldes30 July 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Super League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | BSC Young Boys | 8 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 28 | 16 | +12 | 16 |
| 11 | FC Vaduz | 8 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 17 | 19 | -2 | 6 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: BSC Young Boys vs FC Vaduz
- 23 August 2026BSC Young Boys 4–2 FC VaduzSuper League
- 13 January 2024BSC Young Boys 3–2 FC VaduzFriendlies Clubs
- 14 January 2023BSC Young Boys 0–0 FC VaduzFriendlies Clubs
- 11 May 2021FC Vaduz 0–2 BSC Young BoysSuper League
- 6 March 2021BSC Young Boys 1–1 FC VaduzSuper League
- 24 January 2021FC Vaduz 0–0 BSC Young BoysSuper League
Leading scorers: BSC Young Boys and FC Vaduz
BSC Young Boys
- S. Essende8 goals3 assists
- C. Fassnacht4 goals1 assists
- A. Sanches3 goals4 assists
FC Vaduz
- Juan Cabrera4 goals
- L. Dalipi3 goals7 assists
- M. Monsberger3 goals1 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.