Brighton vs Aston Villa Premier League prediction & result
Final score: Brighton 4-0 Aston Villa.
Before kick-off the model made it 55% Brighton, 21% draw, 24% Aston Villa — fair odds of 1.82, 4.76 and 4.17. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Brighton at 55% here. Across 2485 settled matches, 635 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 52.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Brighton vs Aston Villa
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1Bart VerbruggenG
- 27Mats WiefferD
- 44Luka VuškovićD
- 5Lewis DunkD
- 21Olivier BoscagliD
- 13Pascal GroßM
- 26Yasin AyariM
- 25Diego GómezM
- 8Jack HinshelwoodM
- 29Maxim De CuyperM
- 10Georginio RutterF
- 20CostinhaD
- 19Charalampos KostoulasF
- 15Ibrahim OsmanF
- 36Zadok YohannaF
- 35Malick YalcouyéM
- 23Jason SteeleG
- 4Pascal StruijkD
- 30Michael SvobodaD
- 12Promise DavidF
- 40Marco BizotG
- 2Matty CashD
- 3Victor LindelöfD
- 14Pau TorresD
- 22Ian MaatsenD
- 8Boubacar KamaraM
- 35João GomesM
- 7John McGinnM
- 6Ross BarkleyM
- 53George HemmingsM
- 10Emiliano BuendíaF
- 5Tyrone MingsD
- 26Lamare BogardeM
- 13Matteo RuggeriD
- 47AlyssonF
- 17Alejandro GarnachoF
- 1Zion SuzukiG
- 45Triston RoweD
- 49Bradley BurrowesF
- 74Luka LynchF
Form going into Brighton vs Aston Villa
Brighton
- D0-0away to Tromso20 August 2026
Aston Villa
No earlier matches on record this season.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Brighton | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 13 | 5 | +8 | 7 |
| 19 | Aston Villa | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 7 | -6 | 1 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Brighton vs Aston Villa
- 23 August 2026Brighton 4–0 Aston VillaPremier League
- 11 February 2026Aston Villa 1–0 BrightonPremier League
- 3 December 2025Brighton 3–4 Aston VillaPremier League
- 2 April 2025Brighton 0–3 Aston VillaPremier League
- 30 December 2024Aston Villa 2–2 BrightonPremier League
- 5 May 2024Brighton 1–0 Aston VillaPremier League
Leading scorers: Brighton and Aston Villa
Brighton
- M. Yalcouyé2 goals
Aston Villa
No player in Premier League's leading scorers — 1 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.