14 August 2026, 15:30 UTC

Budapest Honved vs Vasas NB I prediction & result

Bozsik Arena, Budapest
Full time1 2

Final score: Budapest Honved 1-2 Vasas.

Before kick-off the model made it 12% Budapest Honved, 19% draw, 69% Vasas — fair odds of 8.33, 5.26 and 1.45. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 0-2.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Vasas at 69% here. Across 2485 settled matches, 276 forecasts have landed in the 65–100% band; those outcomes actually happened 60.1% of the time, against an average forecast of 74.5%. In this range the model is over-confident, so read the figure above as optimistic rather than literal.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Budapest Honved2%Draw91%Vasas7%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

A. Alicassist: S. Hangya
27'
🔁S. Hangyaout: P. Garcia
46'
K. Kallai
56'
57'
🔁M. Kovacsretiout: R. Horvath
57'
🔁B. Rabout: S. Mezei
P. Garcia
59'
60'
M. Koszta
D. Boldor
60'
🔁A. Alicout: P. Pinte
75'
🔁K. Kallaiout: B. Pauljevic
75'
D. Csontos
76'
78'
M. Toth (pen)assist: M. Toth
78'
M. Toth
81'
🔁M. Kosztaout: B. Petho
81'
D. Csoka
🔁A. Szamosiout: K. Kantor
89'
🔁D. Boldorout: Z. Medgyes
89'
A. Baki
90+7'
90+7'
D. Csoka
90+8'
🔁J. Urblikout: V. Gey
90+9'
B. Petho

Line-ups

Budapest Honved
Coach: Maurizio Jacobacci
Vasas
Coach: Gabor Eros

Form going into Budapest Honved vs Vasas

Budapest Honved

  • D2-2away to Paks9 August 2026
  • D3-3MTK Budapest1 August 2026

Vasas

  • W5-0Zalaegerszegi TE8 August 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

NB I table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
11Budapest Honved61321011-16
3Vasas7322139+411

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Budapest Honved vs Vasas

  • 14 August 2026Budapest Honved 1–2 VasasNB I
  • 10 May 2026Budapest Honved 3–1 VasasNB II
  • 24 November 2025Vasas 1–2 Budapest HonvedNB II
  • 25 May 2025Vasas 2–2 Budapest HonvedNB II
  • 30 November 2024Budapest Honved 1–0 VasasNB II
  • 6 May 2024Budapest Honved 0–3 VasasNB II

Leading scorers: Budapest Honved and Vasas

Budapest Honved

No player in NB I's leading scorers — 10 league goals as a side.

Vasas

  • M. Kovácsréti2 goals1 assists

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.