Ujpest vs MTK Budapest NB I prediction & result
Final score: Ujpest 1-1 MTK Budapest.
Before kick-off the model made it 26% Ujpest, 23% draw, 51% MTK Budapest — fair odds of 3.85, 4.35 and 1.96. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts MTK Budapest at 51% here. Across 2485 settled matches, 635 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 52.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Line-ups
Form going into Ujpest vs MTK Budapest
Ujpest
- W4-2away to Kisvarda FC8 August 2026
MTK Budapest
- L2-3Puskas Academy7 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
NB I table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Ujpest | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 15 | 12 | +3 | 11 |
| 6 | MTK Budapest | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 14 | 12 | +2 | 9 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Ujpest vs MTK Budapest
- 15 August 2026Ujpest 1–1 MTK BudapestNB I
- 4 April 2026Ujpest 2–2 MTK BudapestNB I
- 13 December 2025MTK Budapest 3–4 UjpestNB I
- 30 August 2025Ujpest 1–2 MTK BudapestNB I
- 24 May 2025MTK Budapest 1–3 UjpestNB I
- 1 March 2025Ujpest 1–5 MTK BudapestNB I
Leading scorers: Ujpest and MTK Budapest
Ujpest
- A. Matko4 goals2 assists
- E. Amenyido3 goals3 assists
- G. Vlijter2 goals1 assists
MTK Budapest
- Zalán Márk Kerezsi4 goals2 assists
- G. Jurek4 goals1 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.