Lask Linz vs Ried Bundesliga prediction & result
Final score: Lask Linz 4-1 Ried.
Before kick-off the model made it 85% Lask Linz, 9% draw, 6% Ried — fair odds of 1.18, 11.11 and 16.67. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 3-1.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Lask Linz at 85% here. Across 2485 settled matches, 276 forecasts have landed in the 65–100% band; those outcomes actually happened 60.1% of the time, against an average forecast of 74.5%. In this range the model is over-confident, so read the figure above as optimistic rather than literal.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 5 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Lask Linz vs Ried
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1L. JungwirthG
- 4X. MbuyambaD
- 43J. TornichD
- 16A. AndradeD
- 20K. P. Molgaard JorgensenM
- 10R. LjubicicM
- 6M. BogardeM
- 30S. HorvathM
- 2G. BelloM
- 8M. UsorF
- 7S. AdeniranF
- 33T. SchutzenauerG
- 25Y. DibangoD
- 3M. FreckletonD
- 21M. Verhaeghe
- 29F. FleckerF
- 9K. DanekM
- 27C. LangF
- 18A. SchopfM
- 45N. KaneM
- 1A. LeitnerG
- 5D. RadonjicD
- 28S. ChukwudiD
- 30O. SteurerD
- 4L. MalicsekM
- 6Y. MaartM
- 22S. SchwabM
- 7O. SorgM
- 12A. BajicF
- 47E. E. AisowierenF
- 9P. Sissoko
- 77F. WimmerG
- 25D. KirnbauerD
- 33A. GoigingerD
- 26J. MayerM
- 10J. NasraweM
- 8M. RasnerM
- 19T. Lund-JensenM
- 21T. KusanovicF
- 15J. Boguo
Form going into Lask Linz vs Ried
Lask Linz
- W2-0away to Austria Vienna9 August 2026
Ried
- L1-2Rapid Vienna9 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Bundesliga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Lask Linz | 6 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 16 | 4 | +12 | 15 |
| 10 | Ried | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 7 | 11 | -4 | 5 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Lask Linz vs Ried
- 14 August 2026Lask Linz 4–1 RiedBundesliga
- 18 March 2026Ried 1–2 Lask LinzCup
- 14 February 2026Ried 1–1 Lask LinzBundesliga
- 30 August 2025Lask Linz 1–3 RiedBundesliga
- 21 March 2025Lask Linz 1–1 RiedFriendlies Clubs
- 18 February 2023Ried 1–1 Lask LinzBundesliga
Leading scorers: Lask Linz and Ried
Lask Linz
- S. Adeniran4 goals1 assists
- C. Lang4 goals
- M. Usor2 goals3 assists
Ried
No player in Bundesliga's leading scorers — 7 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.