14 August 2026, 18:45 UTC

Cercle Brugge vs St. Truiden Jupiler Pro League prediction & result

Jan Breydel Stadion, Brugge
Full time3 – 3

Final score: Cercle Brugge 3-3 St. Truiden.

Before kick-off the model made it 43% Cercle Brugge, 24% draw, 33% St. Truiden — fair odds of 2.33, 4.17 and 3.03. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Cercle Brugge at 43% here. Across 2485 settled matches, 1122 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.4% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

1'
⚽R. Merlenassist: I. Sebaoui
18'
Nelson Ishiwatari
⚽S. Ngoura
28'
37'
⚽R. Merlenassist: R. Vanwesemael
47'
⚽N. Ishiwatariassist: I. Sebaoui
57'
Joedrick Pupe
🔁E. Kakouout: L. Michal
62'
🔁D. Vanzeirout: I. Diakite
73'
🔁V. Martensout: Erick Nunes
73'
79'
Loïc Mbe Soh
🔁L. Mondeleout: L. Amani
81'
🔁S. Ngouraout: K. Kouassi
81'
⚽Erick Nunes
82'
87'
🔁F. Soelleout: S. Taniguchi
87'
🔁N. Ishiwatariout: W. Janssens
87'
🔁R. Merlenout: O. Diouf
⚽L. Mbe Soh (OG)
90'

Match stats — Cercle Brugge vs St. Truiden

55%Possession45%
26Shots13
8On target7
10Corners3
4.15xG2.04

Goals against chances

Cercle Brugge3 from 4.15 xGless than the chances were worth
St. Truiden3 from 2.04 xGmore than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Cercle Brugge 3-4-2-1
  • 1G. CouckeG
  • 5E. KakouD
  • 66C. RavychD
  • 24G. KondoD
  • 15G. MagneeM
  • 42L. MondeleM
  • 19I. DiabyM
  • 12K. ValyM
  • 13D. VanzeirF
  • 71V. MartensF
  • 9S. NgouraF
Substitutes
  • 84B. LangenbickG
  • 2I. DiakiteD
  • 75S. GheerardynsD
  • 33R. CaicedoD
  • 10L. AmaniM
  • 8Erick NunesM
  • 23H. JuradoF
  • 41K. KouassiF
  • 22L. MichalF
Coach: Lars Friis
St. Truiden
  • 16L. KokuboG
  • 3T. HataD
  • 4L. Mbe SohD
  • 26V. MusliuD
  • 23J. PupeD
  • 18N. IshiwatariM
  • 8A. SissakoM
  • 60R. VanwesemaelM
  • 14R. MerlenM
  • 10I. SebaouiM
  • 19F. Soelle
Substitutes
  • 21M. LendfersG
  • 33A. DirikenM
  • 5S. TaniguchiD
  • 71R. ArakiM
  • 38K. MatsuzawaF
  • 31I. BenachourM
  • 22W. JanssensD
  • 99S. ShinkawaM
  • 77O. Diouf

Form going into Cercle Brugge vs St. Truiden

Cercle Brugge

  • D2-2away to Standard Liege8 August 2026

St. Truiden

  • D1-1Lommel United8 August 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

Jupiler Pro League table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
15Cercle Brugge6033611-53
10St. Truiden62221210+28

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Cercle Brugge vs St. Truiden

  • 14 August 2026Cercle Brugge 3–3 St. TruidenJupiler Pro League
  • 8 March 2026St. Truiden 2–1 Cercle BruggeJupiler Pro League
  • 29 August 2025Cercle Brugge 1–1 St. TruidenJupiler Pro League
  • 26 April 2025Cercle Brugge 3–1 St. TruidenJupiler Pro League
  • 12 April 2025St. Truiden 3–1 Cercle BruggeJupiler Pro League
  • 27 December 2024St. Truiden 1–1 Cercle BruggeJupiler Pro League

Leading scorers: Cercle Brugge and St. Truiden

Cercle Brugge

No player in Jupiler Pro League's leading scorers — 6 league goals as a side.

St. Truiden

  • S. Baždar4 goals
  • R. Merlen3 goals3 assists

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.