1 November 2026, 17:30 UTC

Burgos vs Castellón Segunda División prediction & result

Burgos
Referee: Rafael Sanchez Lopez
Full time1 – 1

Final score: Burgos 1-1 Castellón.

Before kick-off the model made it 33% Burgos, 31% draw, 36% Castellón — fair odds of 3.03, 3.23 and 2.78.

Most likely scoreline: 0-1.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Castellón at 36%: of 4,828 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.4% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Burgos4%Draw94%Castellón2%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

2'
⚽Israel Suero Fernández
Curro
41'
⚽Oier Luengo Redondoassist: Javier Llabrés Exposito
45+1'
Grego Sierra
45+2'
45'
🔁Jeremy Mellotout: Ilias Kostis
Pablo Galdames
50'
60'
Matías Orozco
60'
Agustín Sienra
🔁Pablo Galdamesout: José Gragera
62'
🔁Grego Sierraout: Sergio González
62'
66'
Adam Jakobsen
70'
🔁Agustín Sienraout: antonio gala
70'
🔁Israel Suero Fernándezout: Juanjo Nieto
76'
🔁Adam Jakobsenout: Álvaro García Arana
🔁Curroout: Victor Mollejo
77'
79'
Juanjo Nieto
85'
🔁Pablo Santiagoout: rodrigo rego
🔁Javier Llabrés Expositoout: Kevin Appin
88'
90+1'
Romain Matthys

Match stats — Burgos vs Castellón

40%Possession60%
9Shots5
4On target1
1Corners1
0.34xG0.3

Goals against chances

Burgos1 from 0.34 xGmore than the chances were worth
Castellón1 from 0.30 xGmore than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Burgos 5-3-2
  • 13Ander CanteroG
  • 23Alberto DadieD
  • 2ÁlexD
  • 15Oier LuengoD
  • 8GregoD
  • 22Brais MartínezD
  • 16Curro SánchezM
  • 12Unai VencedorM
  • 4P. GaldamesM
  • 9Álex ForésF
  • 19Javi LlabrésF
Substitutes
  • 17Mario CanteroM
  • 10K. AppinM
  • 5Marcelo ExpósitoM
  • 21Fermin GarciaF
  • 6Sergio GonzálezD
  • 20José GrageraM
  • 1Bruno IribarneG
  • 36I. MartinezD
  • 11Víctor MollejoF
Coach: Sergio Francisco
Castellón 4-4-2
  • 13R. MatthysG
  • 18Pablo SantiagoD
  • 22J. MellotD
  • 5Alberto JiménezD
  • 4A. SienraD
  • 10Israel SueroM
  • 6M. OrozcoM
  • 8BarriM
  • 14Iñigo CórdobaM
  • 16A. JakobsenF
  • 21Álvaro MartínF
Substitutes
  • 11F. CeccheriniD
  • 20Martín CondeD
  • 26Rodrigo Miguel Ferreira RêgoF
  • 27A. GalaM
  • 23Varo GarcíaF
  • 15I. KostisD
  • 24D. Muale NzanzaF
  • 2Juanjo NietoD
  • 1A. SaipiG
Coach: Pablo Hernández

Form going into Burgos vs Castellón

Burgos

Segunda División

  • W3-2away to FC Andorra26 October 2026
  • W1-0Sabadell18 October 2026

Castellón

Segunda División

  • W4-0Sporting Gijon25 October 2026
  • W3-0away to Las Palmas17 October 2026
  • L0-1away to FC Andorra11 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Segunda División table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
4Burgos147342017+324
2Castellón13931245+1930

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Burgos vs Castellón

  • 18 April 2026Castellón 3–1 BurgosSegunda División
  • 10 November 2025Burgos 0–0 CastellónSegunda División
  • 1 March 2025Castellón 2–1 BurgosSegunda División
  • 1 September 2024Burgos 0–2 CastellónSegunda División

Leading scorers: Burgos and Castellón

Burgos

GoalsAssists

  • Álex Forés41

Castellón

GoalsAssists

  • Israel Suero62
  • A. Jakobsen41
  • Ousmane Camara41

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Burgos and Castellón drew 1–1. The model had leaned towards a win for Castellón at 36% and given a draw 31%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one. The goals: Israel Suero Fernández 2' for Castellón, Oier Luengo Redondo 45+1' for Burgos. Sent off: Matías Orozco (Castellón) 60'. On expected goals it finished 0.34–0.30.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Burgos a 10.7% chance to finish in the top two: 14.1% after a win, 9.6% after a draw, 7.4% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 9.6%, 1.1 points lower than before the match.

For Castellón the question was the chance to finish top of the regular season, 50.5% going in: 56.0% after a win, 49.7% after a draw, 45.5% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 49.7%, 0.8 points lower than before the match.

Read from our Segunda División season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.