Tenerife vs FC Andorra Segunda División prediction & result
Final score: Tenerife 2-2 FC Andorra.
Before kick-off the model made it 42% Tenerife, 27% draw, 31% FC Andorra — fair odds of 2.38, 3.70 and 3.23.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
Tenerife at 42%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals, and a card each of the 3 sendings-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Tenerife vs FC Andorra
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1Dani MartínG
- 2David RodríguezD
- 27N. ViereckD
- 12A. LandázuriD
- 3R. JureškinD
- 6JuanjoM
- 16Jesús ÁlvarezM
- 17C. GomisM
- 10Nacho GilM
- 11Noel LópezM
- 18Enric GallegoF
- 23A. KrdžalićM
- 29Daniel FernándezM
- 4José LeónD
- 40Gabriel LozanoG
- 21Marc MateuD
- 8VÃctor MorenoM
- 5Jorge MorenoD
- 7M. PečarM
- 20M. PittónM
- 25Jesús OwonoG
- 17T. CarriqueD
- 3L. SpatzD
- 23Diego AlendeD
- 20Martí VilàD
- 8E. AkmanM
- 10Marc DomènechM
- 16R. SchneiderM
- 22D. DiazF
- 11L. de LeónF
- 21Moró SidibeF
- 5Marc BombardóD
- 27S. GolubovicF
- 18Andoni LópezD
- 29Hugo LópezF
- 13Pau LópezG
- 14Sergio MolinaM
- 19Nacho QuintanaM
- 9Julian Dean RijkhoffF
- 12E. SaliF
Form going into Tenerife vs FC Andorra
Tenerife
Segunda División
- D1-1away to Sabadell25 October 2026
- D1-1away to Celta de Vigo II19 October 2026
- D1-1Girona12 October 2026
- L2-3away to Cordoba5 October 2026
FC Andorra
Segunda División
- L2-3Burgos26 October 2026
- L0-2away to Girona18 October 2026
- W1-0Castellón11 October 2026
What these results say
- Tenerife did not win any of these 4 matches.
- Tenerife scored in every one of these 4 matches.
- Tenerife conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Segunda División table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Tenerife | 12 | 3 | 6 | 3 | 15 | 17 | -2 | 15 |
| 19 | FC Andorra | 13 | 3 | 2 | 8 | 18 | 24 | -6 | 11 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Tenerife vs FC Andorra
- 3 February 2024Tenerife 0–0 FC AndorraSegunda División
- 3 September 2023FC Andorra 0–1 TenerifeSegunda División
- 14 May 2023FC Andorra 1–0 TenerifeSegunda División
- 16 December 2022Tenerife 1–1 FC AndorraSegunda División
Leading scorers: Tenerife and FC Andorra
Tenerife
GoalsAssists
- Enric Gallego81
FC Andorra
GoalsAssists
- Jordi Cano52
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Tenerife and FC Andorra drew 2–2. The model had leaned towards a win for Tenerife at 42% and given a draw 27%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: Christian Pierre Louis Gomis 3' for Tenerife, Enric Gallego (penalty) 39' for Tenerife, Lautaro De León (penalty) 83' for FC Andorra, Stefan Golubovic 88' for FC Andorra. Sent off: Lautaro De León (FC Andorra) 83', Dani Martín (Tenerife) 85', Jesús Owono (FC Andorra) 90+7'. On expected goals it finished 1.38–1.88.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Tenerife a 8.7% chance to finish in the bottom four: 5.5% after a win, 9.7% after a draw, 11.6% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 9.7%, 1 points higher than before the match.
For FC Andorra the question was the chance to finish in the bottom four, 18.8% going in: 14.4% after a win, 17.6% after a draw, 21.7% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 17.6%, 1.2 points lower than before the match.
Read from our Segunda División season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
How the call on Tenerife v FC Andorra has moved
First published on 18 Oct at 39% / 27% / 34% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 5 updates, it read 42% / 27% / 31%: the biggest move is Tenerife's chance of winning, up 3 points.
- Tenerife win42%▲ +3
- Draw27%=
- FC Andorra win31%▼ −3
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.