1 November 2026, 15:15 UTC

AD Ceuta FC vs Sporting Gijon Segunda División prediction & result

Estadio Municipal Alfonso Murube, Ceuta
Referee: Ojaos Valera, Alejandro
Full time0 – 2

Final score: AD Ceuta FC 0-2 Sporting Gijon.

Before kick-off the model made it 32% AD Ceuta FC, 27% draw, 41% Sporting Gijon — fair odds of 3.13, 3.70 and 2.44.

Most likely scoreline: 1-2.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Sporting Gijon at 41%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

AD Ceuta FC0%Draw1%Sporting Gijon99%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

Kialy Abdoul Kone
17'
27'
🔁Pablo Garcíaout: Enol Prendes Ortiz
29'
⚽Alejo Sarcoassist: Guillermo Rosas
José Antonio Abad Martínez
33'
🔁Alejandro Meléndezout: Jordi Escobar
42'
🔁Kialy Abdoul Koneout: Edgar Sevikyan
42'
Marino Illesca
45+2'
Carlos Hernández
47'
60'
🔁Hugo Guillamónout: Nacho Martín
61'
🔁Alejo Sarcoout: Diego Matabuena Álvarez
Adrián Lapeña
64'
🔁Yann Bodigerout: Anuar Mohamed Tuhami
64'
🔁Cedric Teguiaout: Alejandro Camacho Ramírez
64'
67'
⚽Guillermo Rosasassist: Gaspar Campos
🔁José Antonio Abad Martínezout: Chidiebere Gabriel Okoro
76'
76'
🔁Álex Correderaout: Mamadou Loum
76'
🔁Juan Oteroout: Miguel Conde
79'
Mamadou Loum
Alejandro Camacho Ramírez
87'
90'
Miguel Conde

Match stats — AD Ceuta FC vs Sporting Gijon

51%Possession49%
14Shots20
5On target8
6Corners3
1.26xG2.62

Goals against chances

AD Ceuta FC0 from 1.26 xGless than the chances were worth
Sporting Gijon2 from 2.62 xGless than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

AD Ceuta FC 4-3-3
  • 13Guille VallejoG
  • 2Toni AbadD
  • 6Carlos HernándezD
  • 5Adrián LapeñaD
  • 16RedruD
  • 20Álex MeléndezM
  • 14Y. BodigerM
  • 10Marino IllescasM
  • 11Cedric TeguiaF
  • 8KukiF
  • 22K. KonéF
Substitutes
  • 19E. SevikyanM
  • 29O. SadikF
  • 7Alejandro Camacho RamírezM
  • 28Abraham Bueno EspinosaM
  • 26Arick BetancourtM
  • 4Albert CaparrósD
  • 9Jordi EscobarF
  • 15JoaquínM
  • 1Pedro LópezG
Coach: José Juan Romero
Sporting Gijon 3-5-2
  • 1Rubén YáñezG
  • 24Aimar DuñabeitiaD
  • 23Jorge SáenzD
  • 44Andrés CuencaD
  • 2Guille RosasM
  • 22Hugo GuillamónM
  • 14Álex CorrederaM
  • 7Gaspar CamposM
  • 3Pablo GarcíaM
  • 19J. OteroF
  • 16A. SarcoF
Substitutes
  • 21M. LoumM
  • 13AranaG
  • 28M. CondeF
  • 4E. GularteD
  • 6Nacho MartínM
  • 26Iker MartínezD
  • 34Diego Matabuena ÁlvarezM
  • 27Enol PrendesF
  • 36B. RubioM
Coach: N. Larcamón

Form going into AD Ceuta FC vs Sporting Gijon

AD Ceuta FC

Segunda División

  • L1-3away to Cadiz25 October 2026
  • L1-2Oviedo18 October 2026
  • L1-2Sabadell10 October 2026

Sporting Gijon

Segunda División

  • L0-4away to Castellón25 October 2026
  • W2-1Albacete17 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Segunda División table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
22AD Ceuta FC1312101030-205
8Sporting Gijon147251617-123

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: AD Ceuta FC vs Sporting Gijon

  • 3 May 2026Sporting Gijon 1–2 AD Ceuta FCSegunda División
  • 23 August 2025AD Ceuta FC 0–1 Sporting GijonSegunda División

Leading scorers: AD Ceuta FC and Sporting Gijon

AD Ceuta FC

GoalsAssists

  • Jordi Escobar41
  • Carlos Hernández40

Sporting Gijon

No player in Segunda División's leading scorers — 16 league goals as a side.

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Sporting Gijon won 2–0 at AD Ceuta FC. The model had made a win for Sporting Gijon its most likely outcome, at 41%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–1. The goals: Alejo Sarco 29' for Sporting Gijon, Guillermo Rosas 67' for Sporting Gijon. On expected goals it finished 1.26–2.62.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave AD Ceuta FC a 82.7% chance to finish in the bottom four: 78.8% after a win, 82.9% after a draw, 86.5% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 86.5%, 3.8 points higher than before the match.

Read from our Segunda División season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on AD Ceuta FC v Sporting Gijon has moved

First published on 18 Oct at 30% / 28% / 42% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 2 updates, it read 32% / 27% / 41%: the biggest move is AD Ceuta FC's chance of winning, up 2 points.

  1. AD Ceuta FC win32%▲ +2
  2. Draw27%▼ −1
  3. Sporting Gijon win41%▼ −1

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.