1 November 2026, 13:00 UTC

Eldense vs Granada CF Segunda División prediction & result

Estadio Nuevo Pepico Amat, Elda
Referee: Iosu Galech Apezteguia
Full time0 – 2

Final score: Eldense 0-2 Granada CF.

Before kick-off the model made it 41% Eldense, 27% draw, 32% Granada CF — fair odds of 2.44, 3.70 and 3.13.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Eldense at 41%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Eldense0%Draw5%Granada CF95%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

41'
Juanjo Flores
Juan Larios López
59'
60'
⚽Rubén Alcarazassist: Gerard Gumbau
🔁Javi Martínezout: Mariano Emilio Carmona Cerezo
61'
67'
🔁Mario Jiménez Gambínout: Owen Emeka
67'
🔁Pedro Alemañ Sernaout: Diego Hormigo
🔁Aingeru Olabarrietaout: Roberto López
67'
🔁Carlos Guirao Moraout: Jorge Martin Camunas
67'
🔁Jorge Rastrojoout: Pau Cabanes De La Torre
67'
Jesús Clemente Corcho
69'
🔁Fidelout: Waldo Rubio
77'
79'
🔁Jorge Pascualout: Alejandro Mendez
79'
🔁Sergio Rodelas Pintorout: Kader Bamba
90+1'
⚽Owen Emekaassist: Diego Varela Pampín

Match stats — Eldense vs Granada CF

59%Possession41%
13Shots8
6On target3
4Corners2
0.63xG1.66

Goals against chances

Eldense0 from 0.63 xGless than the chances were worth
Granada CF2 from 1.66 xGabout what the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Eldense 4-4-2
  • 1Ramón VilaG
  • 17Jesús ClementeD
  • 5Alex SerradellD
  • 4F. SmandD
  • 3Juan LariosD
  • 10FidelM
  • 15Carlos GuiraoM
  • 24Javi MartínezM
  • 33Aingeru OlabarrietaM
  • 7Jorge RastrojoF
  • 8Marcos BustilloF
Substitutes
  • 34J. OlaizolaD
  • 11Manu NietoF
  • 23Jordi MartínD
  • 12Roberto LópezM
  • 19A. IbarrondoF
  • 9M. CarmonaF
  • 6Borja CalvoM
  • 16Pau CabanesF
  • 13JuanpaG
Coach: Javi Calleja
Granada CF 4-2-3-1
  • 1Alberto FloresG
  • 18Sergio LópezD
  • 30Juan José Flores CastroD
  • 5Manu LamaD
  • 16Diego PampínD
  • 4Rubén AlcarazM
  • 6GumbauM
  • 7Sergio RodelasM
  • 8Pedro AlemañM
  • 27M. GambinM
  • 10Jorge PascualF
Substitutes
  • 23B. GimberD
  • 33A. GarciaD
  • 35B. DembeleD
  • 17K. BambaF
  • 3Diego HormigoD
  • 13Raúl LizoainG
  • 9Alejandro MarquésF
  • 36O. M. ChukwuemekaF
  • 19Chinaza OnouhaF
Coach: José Rojo Martín

Form going into Eldense vs Granada CF

Eldense

Segunda División

  • L0-2away to Albacete25 October 2026
  • W3-2away to Valladolid18 October 2026
  • W2-1Cordoba10 October 2026

Granada CF

Segunda División

  • W2-1Valladolid23 October 2026
  • W2-0Cadiz18 October 2026
  • W1-0away to Burgos12 October 2026
  • W3-2away to Real Sociedad II4 October 2026

What these results say

  • Granada CF won every one of these 4 matches.
  • Granada CF scored in every one of these 4 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Segunda División table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
16Eldense134271319-614
7Granada CF127232014+623

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Eldense vs Granada CF

  • 31 January 2025Eldense 0–3 Granada CFSegunda División
  • 9 November 2024Granada CF 3–2 EldenseSegunda División

Leading scorers: Eldense and Granada CF

Eldense

No player in Segunda División's leading scorers — 13 league goals as a side.

Granada CF

GoalsAssists

  • Jorge Pascual40

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Granada CF won 2–0 at Eldense. The model had leaned towards a win for Eldense at 41% and given a win for Granada CF 32%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one. The goals: Rubén Alcaraz 60' for Granada CF, Owen Emeka 90+1' for Granada CF. On expected goals it finished 0.63–1.66.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Eldense a 9.7% chance to finish in the bottom four: 6.6% after a win, 10.5% after a draw, 12.2% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 12.2%, 2.5 points higher than before the match.

Read from our Segunda División season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Eldense v Granada CF has moved

First published on 18 Oct at 45% / 27% / 28% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 5 updates, it read 41% / 27% / 32%: the biggest move is Eldense's chance of winning, down 4 points.

  1. Eldense win41%▼ −4
  2. Draw27%=
  3. Granada CF win32%▲ +4

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.