2 November 2026, 20:00 UTC

Mallorca vs Cadiz Segunda División prediction & result

Estadi Mallorca Son Moix, Palma de Mallorca
Referee: Gonzalo Romero Freixas
Full time2 – 1

Final score: Mallorca 2-1 Cadiz.

Before kick-off the model made it 55% Mallorca, 28% draw, 17% Cadiz — fair odds of 1.82, 3.57 and 5.88.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Mallorca at 55%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Mallorca98%Draw2%Cadiz0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

Antonio Sánchez
5'
Sergi Darder
23'
43'
Bojan Kovacevic
50'
⚽Antonio Corderoassist: Dilan Zárate
55'
Antonio Cordero
⚽Pablo Torreassist: Zito Luvumbo
63'
72'
🔁Álvaro García Pascualout: Urko Iruretagoiena Lertxundi
🔁Alberto Morenoout: Antonio Latorre Grueso
76'
🔁Zito Luvumboout: Adam Buksa
76'
80'
🔁Antonio Corderoout: Cristian Gutiérrez
🔁Pablo Torreout: Miguel Calatayud García
83'
🔁Antonio Sánchezout: Guille Fernández
83'
89'
🔁Javier Castroout: Beñat de Jesús Domingo
89'
🔁Borja Vazquezout: Javier Ontiveros
89'
🔁Damián Rodríguez Sousaout: Aimen Moueffek
🔁Adrian Lisoout: Josep Cerda
89'
⚽Adrian Fuentesassist: Alex Sala
89'

Match stats — Mallorca vs Cadiz

64%Possession36%
23Shots10
6On target3
10Corners2
3.37xG0.56

Goals against chances

Mallorca2 from 3.37 xGless than the chances were worth
Cadiz1 from 0.56 xGabout what the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Mallorca 4-4-2
  • 1Arnau TenasG
  • 6Antonio SánchezD
  • 24M. ValjentD
  • 21RaílloD
  • 5Alberto MorenoD
  • 11Zito LuvumboM
  • 7Álex SalaM
  • 10DarderM
  • 33Adrian LisoM
  • 18FuentesF
  • 20Pablo TorreF
Substitutes
  • 34M. CalatayudD
  • 16A. BuksaF
  • 19Josep CerdàF
  • 25Iván CuéllarG
  • 2Guille FernándezM
  • 39J. GarciaM
  • 3Toni LatoD
  • 29L. OrejuelaD
  • 9Abdón PratsF
Coach: Luis García
Cadiz 4-2-3-1
  • 13Jokin EzkietaG
  • 4Javi CastroD
  • 14B. KovačevićD
  • 31N. UkwuijeD
  • 3Sergio ArribasD
  • 23Damián RodríguezM
  • 28D. A. Zarate HidalgoM
  • 20Borja VazquezM
  • 24Ibon SánchezM
  • 16Antonio CorderoM
  • 9Álvaro GarcíaF
Substitutes
  • 5M. DouéM
  • 27J. Diaz PeregrinaD
  • 6Manu FernándezD
  • 1David GilG
  • 22Cristian GutiérrezD
  • 19Urko IzetaF
  • 17A. MoueffekM
  • 10Javi OntiverosM
  • 15K. ToibibouD
Coach: Borja Jiménez

Form going into Mallorca vs Cadiz

Mallorca

Segunda División

  • D1-1away to Leganes24 October 2026
  • D1-1away to Eibar17 October 2026
  • W3-1Las Palmas11 October 2026

Cadiz

Segunda División

  • W3-1AD Ceuta FC25 October 2026
  • L0-2away to Granada CF18 October 2026
  • L0-1Sporting Gijon11 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Segunda División table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
5Mallorca136521810+823
20Cadiz132471618-210

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Mallorca vs Cadiz

  • 28 April 2024Cadiz 1–1 MallorcaLa Liga
  • 29 November 2023Mallorca 1–1 CadizLa Liga
  • 12 May 2023Mallorca 1–0 CadizLa Liga
  • 28 January 2023Cadiz 2–0 MallorcaLa Liga
  • 5 February 2022Mallorca 2–1 CadizLa Liga
  • 31 October 2021Cadiz 1–1 MallorcaLa Liga

Leading scorers: Mallorca and Cadiz

Mallorca

GoalsAssists

  • Fuentes71

Cadiz

GoalsAssists

  • Antonio Cordero52

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Mallorca beat Cadiz 2–1. The model had made a win for Mallorca its most likely outcome, at 55%, so the call held; the score it named was 1–0. The goals: Antonio Cordero 50' for Cadiz, Pablo Torre 63' for Mallorca, Adrian Fuentes 89' for Mallorca. On expected goals it finished 3.37–0.56.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Mallorca a 14.9% chance to finish in the top two: 16.8% after a win, 12.7% after a draw, 9.4% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 16.8%, 1.9 points higher than before the match.

For Cadiz the question was the chance to finish in the bottom four, 47.2% going in: 38.2% after a win, 45.7% after a draw, 50.0% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 50.0%, 2.8 points higher than before the match.

Read from our Segunda División season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Mallorca v Cadiz has moved

First published on 18 Oct at 62% / 23% / 15% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 4 updates, it read 55% / 28% / 17%: the biggest move is Mallorca's chance of winning, down 7 points.

  1. Mallorca win55%▼ −7
  2. Draw28%▲ +5
  3. Cadiz win17%▲ +2

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.