Burgos vs Real Sociedad II Segunda División prediction & result
Final score: Burgos 2-2 Real Sociedad II.
Before kick-off the model made it 43% Burgos, 29% draw, 28% Real Sociedad II — fair odds of 2.33, 3.45 and 3.57.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
Burgos at 43%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Burgos vs Real Sociedad II
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 13A. CanteroG
- 23A. Dadie IzagirreD
- 6S. GonzalezD
- 8G. SierraD
- 3I. VilarrasaD
- 14D. Gonzalez BallesterosM
- 20J. GrageraM
- 4P. GaldamesM
- 19J. LlabresM
- 16C. SanchezF
- 9A. ForesF
- 37C. TorrelavidG
- 1B. IribarneG
- 22B. MartinezD
- 36I. MartinezD
- 18S. del CerroM
- 10K. AppinM
- 5M. ExpositoM
- 17M. CanteroM
- 11V. MollejoF
- 1A. FragaG
- 2J. GarroD
- 3J. BaldaD
- 5K. KitaD
- 23U. AgoteD
- 8I. AguirreM
- 6A. LebarbierM
- 7D. DiazM
- 16G. GorosabelM
- 17L. AstiazaranM
- 18G. CarreraF
- 32L. OlasagastiG
- 13T. FolgadoG
- 22I. RuperezD
- 29I. RoperoD
- 26B. IsasaD
- 30P. VazquezD
- 21J. EceizabarrenaM
- 14T. CarbonellM
- 10A. MariezkurrenaF
Form going into Burgos vs Real Sociedad II
Burgos
All competitions we cover
- L0-1away to Sporting Gijon23 August 2026
- W3-2Cordoba16 August 2026
Real Sociedad II
All competitions we cover
- W2-1away to Albacete22 August 2026
- L0-1Castellón14 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Segunda División table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Burgos | 14 | 7 | 3 | 4 | 20 | 17 | +3 | 24 |
| 18 | Real Sociedad II | 14 | 3 | 4 | 7 | 17 | 24 | -7 | 13 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Burgos vs Real Sociedad II
- 18 July 2026Burgos 2–0 Real Sociedad IIFriendlies Clubs
- 3 May 2026Real Sociedad II 0–0 BurgosSegunda División
- 25 October 2025Burgos 1–0 Real Sociedad IISegunda División
- 13 March 2022Burgos 0–0 Real Sociedad IISegunda División
- 5 December 2021Real Sociedad II 0–1 BurgosSegunda División
- 31 July 2021Real Sociedad II 0–0 BurgosFriendlies Clubs
Leading scorers: Burgos and Real Sociedad II
Burgos
GoalsAssists
- Álex Forés41
Real Sociedad II
No player in Segunda División's leading scorers — 17 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Burgos and Real Sociedad II drew 2–2. The model had leaned towards a win for Burgos at 43% and given a draw 29%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one. The goals: C. Sanchez (penalty) 13' for Burgos, G. Carrera 38' for Real Sociedad II, A. Fores 57' for Burgos, G. Gorosabel 63' for Real Sociedad II. On expected goals it finished 2.65–2.24.