Cadiz vs Valladolid Segunda División prediction & result
Final score: Cadiz 1-1 Valladolid.
Before kick-off the model made it 55% Cadiz, 25% draw, 20% Valladolid — fair odds of 1.82, 4.00 and 5.00.
Most likely scoreline: 2-0.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
Cadiz at 55%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Cadiz vs Valladolid
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 13J. EzkietaG
- 14B. KovacevicD
- 4J. CastroD
- 6M. FernandezD
- 12G. GocholeishviliM
- 18JandroM
- 23D. RodriguezM
- 28D. A. Zarate HidalgoM
- 16A. CorderoM
- 19IzetaF
- 9A. PascualF
- 1D. GilG
- 22C. GutierrezD
- 27J. Diaz PeregrinaD
- 31N. UkwuijeD
- 33M. RiveraM
- 5J. GonzalezM
- 24I. SanchezM
- 11J. de la RosaF
- 21V. KopotunF
- 1A. AcevesG
- 14I. AlejoD
- 12M. RubioD
- 4D. TorresD
- 18C. ClercD
- 8T. OjedaM
- 21J. PonceauM
- 11Y. CabanzonM
- 7L. ChaconM
- 22K. de RooijM
- 20R. van DuivenF
- 26L. LavagninoG
- 5R. MartinezD
- 27I. GarrielD
- 2TrilliD
- 6M. LachuerM
- 16A. BalboaM
- 15P. TomeoD
- 28D. Perez GuerreroM
- 9J. LatasaF
Form going into Cadiz vs Valladolid
Cadiz
All competitions we cover
- D2-2away to Eldense22 August 2026
- D0-0Celta de Vigo II15 August 2026
Valladolid
All competitions we cover
- L0-1away to Eibar23 August 2026
- L0-2away to Mallorca15 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Segunda División table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 | Cadiz | 13 | 2 | 4 | 7 | 16 | 18 | -2 | 10 |
| 12 | Valladolid | 14 | 5 | 3 | 6 | 22 | 21 | +1 | 18 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Cadiz vs Valladolid
- 31 March 2026Valladolid 3–0 CadizSegunda División
- 9 November 2025Cadiz 0–0 ValladolidSegunda División
- 19 May 2023Cadiz 2–0 ValladolidLa Liga
- 16 September 2022Valladolid 0–1 CadizLa Liga
- 24 April 2021Valladolid 1–1 CadizLa Liga
- 29 December 2020Cadiz 0–0 ValladolidLa Liga
Leading scorers: Cadiz and Valladolid
Cadiz
GoalsAssists
- Antonio Cordero52
Valladolid
GoalsAssists
- Adrian Arnuncio51
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Cadiz and Valladolid drew 1–1. The model had leaned towards a win for Cadiz at 55% and given a draw 25%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: Izeta (penalty) 17' for Cadiz, L. Chacon 43' for Valladolid. On expected goals it finished 1.24–1.07.