Mallorca vs AD Ceuta FC Segunda División prediction & result
Final score: Mallorca 3-0 AD Ceuta FC.
Before kick-off the model made it 56% Mallorca, 24% draw, 20% AD Ceuta FC — fair odds of 1.79, 4.17 and 5.00.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
All Segunda División predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
Mallorca at 56%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Mallorca vs AD Ceuta FC
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1A. TenasG
- 34M. CalatayudD
- 24M. ValjentD
- 21A. RailloD
- 3T. LatoD
- 7A. SalaM
- 8M. MorlanesM
- 11Z. LuvumboM
- 20P. TorreM
- 19J. CerdaM
- 18A. FuentesF
- 25Pichu CuellarG
- 13L. BergstromG
- 22A. SoumahoroD
- 4D. LopezD
- 29L. OrejuelaD
- 10S. DarderM
- 6A. SanchezM
- 39J. GarciaM
- 16A. BuksaF
- 13G. VallejoG
- 7A. CamachoD
- 23AnuarD
- 6C. HernandezD
- 5A. LapenaD
- 16C. Redruello NimoD
- 14Y. BodigerM
- 20A. MelendezM
- 8K. ZalazarM
- 11C. TeguiaM
- 9J. EscobarF
- 1P. LopezG
- 18A. PetxaD
- 4A. CaparrosD
- 3Matos JoseD
- 34D. MasD
- 32A. OsoroM
- 17M. MensahM
- 26A. BetancourtM
- 31A. R. GonzalezM
Form going into Mallorca vs AD Ceuta FC
Mallorca
All competitions we cover
- L0-2away to Granada CF24 August 2026
- W2-0Valladolid15 August 2026
AD Ceuta FC
All competitions we cover
- L0-2Las Palmas22 August 2026
- L1-5away to FC Andorra15 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Segunda División table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Mallorca | 13 | 6 | 5 | 2 | 18 | 10 | +8 | 23 |
| 22 | AD Ceuta FC | 13 | 1 | 2 | 10 | 10 | 30 | -20 | 5 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Leading scorers: Mallorca and AD Ceuta FC
Mallorca
GoalsAssists
- Fuentes71
AD Ceuta FC
GoalsAssists
- Jordi Escobar41
- Carlos Hernández40
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Mallorca beat AD Ceuta FC 3–0. The model had made a win for Mallorca its most likely outcome, at 56%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–1. The goals: A. Sala 20' for Mallorca, A. Fuentes 50' for Mallorca, A. Buksa 89' for Mallorca. On expected goals it finished 2.47–0.27.