8 November 2026, 15:45 UTC

Cambuur vs PSV Eindhoven Eredivisie prediction & result

Kooi Stadion, Leeuwarden
Referee: Sander van der Eijk
Full time2 – 5

Final score: Cambuur 2-5 PSV Eindhoven.

Before kick-off the model made it 22% Cambuur, 20% draw, 58% PSV Eindhoven — fair odds of 4.55, 5.00 and 1.72.

Most likely scoreline: 1-2.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

PSV Eindhoven at 58%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Cambuur0%Draw1%PSV Eindhoven99%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 7 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

1'
⚽Sven Mijnansassist: Esmir Bajraktarević
15'
⚽Sven Mijnansassist: Ruben van Bommel
19'
⚽Ruben van Bommelassist: Esmir Bajraktarević
⚽Nicky Souren
41'
Mathieu Maertens
55'
🔁Mathieu Maertensout: Sami Bouhoudane
58'
63'
Sven Mijnans
64'
🔁Guus Tilout: Ricardo Pepi
65'
🔁Ruben van Bommelout: Ayoni Santos
Morgan Costarelli
66'
Rafik El Arguioui
68'
72'
Sergiño Dest
🔁Morgan Costarelliout: Ethan Apkakou
73'
🔁Nicolas Binderout: Iwan Henstra
73'
75'
🔁Sergiño Destout: Kiliann Sildillia
⚽Iwan Henstraassist: Rafik El Arguioui
78'
80'
⚽Sven Mijnans
86'
🔁Lutsharel Geertruidaout: Ryan Flamingo
86'
🔁Esmir Bajraktarevićout: Dennis Man
🔁Rafik El Arguiouiout: Skye Vink
89'
🔁Jason Cekaout: Fabian Kvam
89'
90+2'
⚽Ayoni Santosassist: Kodai Sano

Match stats — Cambuur vs PSV Eindhoven

38%Possession62%
10Shots16
3On target7
1Corners1
1.06xG2.62

Goals against chances

Cambuur2 from 1.06 xGmore than the chances were worth
PSV Eindhoven5 from 2.62 xGmore than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Cambuur 4-3-3
  • 1T. JansenG
  • 2D. BouahD
  • 4I. BaoufD
  • 14B. van DuijlD
  • 28M. CostarelliD
  • 33M. MaertensM
  • 8N. SourenM
  • 10R. El ArguiouiM
  • 30J. ÇekaF
  • 13N. BinderF
  • 11I. HamacheF
Substitutes
  • 3J. BerkhoutD
  • 9S. VinkF
  • 22L. PlogmannG
  • 16R. MuldersD
  • 15F. KvamF
  • 27W. KooistraF
  • 17Ethan ApkakouM
  • 7S. BouhoudaneF
  • 29Iwan HenstraF
Coach: J. Plat
PSV Eindhoven 4-2-3-1
  • 32M. KovářG
  • 8S. DestD
  • 2L. GeertruidaD
  • 4A. ObispoD
  • 18F. KostićD
  • 24K. SanoM
  • 17Mauro JúniorM
  • 19E. BajraktarevicM
  • 21S. MijnansM
  • 7R. van BommelM
  • 20G. TilF
Substitutes
  • 31N. FernandezM
  • 6R. FlamingoD
  • 3Yarek GasiorowskiD
  • 29S. LammersF
  • 27D. ManF
  • 1N. OlijG
  • 9R. PepiF
  • 35A. SantosM
  • 25K. SildilliaD
Coach: P. Bosz

Form going into Cambuur vs PSV Eindhoven

Cambuur

Eredivisie

  • W4-0GO Ahead Eagles31 October 2026
  • W6-1away to Willem II24 October 2026
  • D2-2AZ Alkmaar18 October 2026
  • W1-0away to PEC Zwolle11 October 2026

PSV Eindhoven

Eredivisie

  • W7-0Willem II31 October 2026
  • D1-1Feyenoord25 October 2026
  • L1-2away to ADO Den Haag17 October 2026
  • W2-0Heerenveen9 October 2026

What these results say

  • Cambuur went unbeaten through these 4 matches.
  • Cambuur scored in every one of these 4 matches.
  • Cambuur won 3 of these 4 matches.
  • PSV Eindhoven scored in every one of these 4 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Eredivisie table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
10Cambuur124352527-215
1PSV Eindhoven128224015+2526

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Cambuur vs PSV Eindhoven

  • 12 March 2023PSV Eindhoven 5–2 CambuurEredivisie
  • 1 October 2022Cambuur 3–0 PSV EindhovenEredivisie
  • 23 April 2022Cambuur 1–2 PSV EindhovenEredivisie
  • 21 August 2021PSV Eindhoven 4–1 CambuurEredivisie
  • 1 May 2016PSV Eindhoven 6–2 CambuurEredivisie
  • 12 September 2015Cambuur 0–6 PSV EindhovenEredivisie

The full Cambuur vs PSV Eindhoven record →

Leading scorers: Cambuur and PSV Eindhoven

Cambuur

GoalsAssists

  • R. El Arguioui62
  • I. Hamache53
  • N. Binder52

PSV Eindhoven

GoalsAssists

  • S. Mijnans92
  • G. Til71

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

PSV Eindhoven won 5–2 at Cambuur. The model had made a win for PSV Eindhoven its most likely outcome, at 58%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–1. The goals: Sven Mijnans 1' for PSV Eindhoven, Sven Mijnans 15' for PSV Eindhoven, Ruben van Bommel 19' for PSV Eindhoven, Nicky Souren 41' for Cambuur, Iwan Henstra 78' for Cambuur, Sven Mijnans 80' for PSV Eindhoven, Ayoni Santos 90+2' for PSV Eindhoven. On expected goals it finished 1.06–2.62.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave PSV Eindhoven a 42.8% chance to finish top of the regular season: 46.8% after a win, 36.9% after a draw, 31.1% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 46.8%, 4 points higher than before the match.

Read from our Eredivisie season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Cambuur v PSV Eindhoven has moved

First published on 25 Oct at 20% / 19% / 61% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 2 updates, it read 22% / 20% / 58%: the biggest move is PSV Eindhoven's chance of winning, down 3 points.

  1. Cambuur win22%▲ +2
  2. Draw20%▲ +1
  3. PSV Eindhoven win58%▼ −3

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.