8 November 2026, 15:45 UTC

AZ Alkmaar vs Groningen Eredivisie prediction & result

AFAS Stadion, Alkmaar
Referee: Jannick van der Laan
Full time4 – 3

Final score: AZ Alkmaar 4-3 Groningen.

Before kick-off the model made it 53% AZ Alkmaar, 24% draw, 23% Groningen — fair odds of 1.89, 4.17 and 4.35.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

AZ Alkmaar at 53%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

AZ Alkmaar8%Draw90%Groningen2%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 7 goals, and a card each of the 2 sendings-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

2'
⚽Jacob Ondrejka
⚽Mexx Meerdinkassist: Ro Zangelo Daal
9'
47'
⚽Brynjólfur Darri Willumssonassist: Jacob Ondrejka
54'
⚽Thom Van Bergen
•Elijah Dijkstra
57'
58'
Marco Rente
⚽Mexx Meerdink (pen)
59'
🔁Valdemar Byskov Andreasenout: Kees Smit
60'
🔁Wouter Goesout: Jordy Clasie
60'
61'
Pelle Clement
⚽Ayoub Oufkirassist: Mexx Meerdink
61'
73'
🔁Mark Csingerout: Wouter Prins
73'
🔁Jacob Ondrejkaout: Tygo Land
⚽Mateo Chávez
76'
79'
🔁Jorg Schreudersout: Tyrique Mercera
🔁Ro Zangelo Daalout: Calvin Stengs
84'
🔁Elijah Dijkstraout: Denso Kasius
84'
85'
Etienne Vaessen
88'
Etienne Vaessen
90'
🔁Tika de Jongeout: Lovro Stubljar
90'
🔁Brynjólfur Darri Willumssonout: Nils Eggens
⚽Mexx Meerdink (pen)
90+1'
Peer Koopmeiners
90+5'
🔁Mateo Chávezout: Mees de Wit
90+6'
90+10'
Hans Hateboer

Match stats — AZ Alkmaar vs Groningen

58%Possession42%
19Shots9
5On target5
7Corners0
3.96xG2.18

Goals against chances

AZ Alkmaar4 from 3.96 xGabout what the chances were worth
Groningen3 from 2.18 xGmore than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

AZ Alkmaar 4-2-3-1
  • 28J. De BusserG
  • 22E. DijkstraD
  • 3W. GoesD
  • 29W. HoedtD
  • 5M. ChávezD
  • 21D. KwakmanM
  • 6P. KoopmeinersM
  • 24A. OufkirM
  • 17V. ByskovM
  • 11R. DaalM
  • 9M. MeerdinkF
Substitutes
  • 12H. VerhulstG
  • 14C. StengsM
  • 10K. SmitM
  • 1R. Owusu-OduroG
  • 20A. NataliD
  • 2S. MaikumaD
  • 18B. KovacsF
  • 30D. KasiusD
  • 31R. IchiharaD
Coach: L. Echteld
Groningen 4-2-3-1
  • 1E. VaessenG
  • 33H. HateboerD
  • 3T. BlokzijlD
  • 5M. RenteD
  • 4M. CsingerD
  • 8T. de JongeM
  • 24P. ClementM
  • 14J. SchreudersM
  • 9B. WillumssonM
  • 11J. OndrejkaM
  • 26T. van BergenF
Substitutes
  • 19O. ZawadaF
  • 15E. van der LaanD
  • 13L. ŠtubljarG
  • 2Wouter PrinsD
  • 16A. NordinM
  • 42J. MosselaarD
  • 29Tyrique MerceraD
  • 18T. LandM
  • 20Nils EggensF
Coach: D. Lukkien

Form going into AZ Alkmaar vs Groningen

AZ Alkmaar

Eredivisie

  • L0-1away to Ajax31 October 2026
  • L0-2Twente25 October 2026
  • D2-2away to Cambuur18 October 2026
  • L0-2away to Feyenoord10 October 2026

Groningen

Eredivisie

  • L2-3Sparta Rotterdam1 November 2026
  • D2-2away to NEC Nijmegen25 October 2026
  • L2-5Ajax18 October 2026
  • W5-1away to Excelsior11 October 2026

What these results say

  • AZ Alkmaar did not win any of these 4 matches.
  • AZ Alkmaar conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
  • AZ Alkmaar failed to score in 3 of these 4 matches.
  • Groningen scored in every one of these 4 matches.
  • Groningen conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
  • Every one of these 4 matches for Groningen had three goals or more.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Eredivisie table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
5AZ Alkmaar127232416+823
9Groningen124352928+115

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: AZ Alkmaar vs Groningen

  • 22 March 2026Groningen 3–0 AZ AlkmaarEredivisie
  • 10 August 2025AZ Alkmaar 4–1 GroningenEredivisie
  • 11 May 2025AZ Alkmaar 3–0 GroningenEredivisie
  • 18 December 2024AZ Alkmaar 3–1 GroningenKNVB Beker
  • 25 August 2024Groningen 0–0 AZ AlkmaarEredivisie
  • 11 March 2023AZ Alkmaar 1–0 GroningenEredivisie

The full AZ Alkmaar vs Groningen record →

Leading scorers: AZ Alkmaar and Groningen

AZ Alkmaar

GoalsAssists

  • M. Meerdink63
  • R. Daal51

Groningen

GoalsAssists

  • B. Willumsson91
  • T. van Bergen83

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

AZ Alkmaar beat Groningen 4–3. The model had made a win for AZ Alkmaar its most likely outcome, at 53%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–1. The goals: Jacob Ondrejka 2' for Groningen, Mexx Meerdink 9' for AZ Alkmaar, Brynjólfur Darri Willumsson 47' for Groningen, Thom Van Bergen 54' for Groningen, Ayoub Oufkir 61' for AZ Alkmaar, Mateo Chávez 76' for AZ Alkmaar, Mexx Meerdink (penalty) 90+1' for AZ Alkmaar. Sent off: Etienne Vaessen (Groningen) 88', Hans Hateboer (Groningen) 90+10'. On expected goals it finished 3.96–2.18.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave AZ Alkmaar a 30.9% chance to finish in the top four: 34.8% after a win, 25.9% after a draw, 23.5% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 34.8%, 3.9 points higher than before the match.

Read from our Eredivisie season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.