8 November 2026, 19:00 UTC

Utrecht vs NEC Nijmegen Eredivisie prediction & result

Stadion Galgenwaard, Utrecht
Referee: Erwin Blank
Full time2 – 3

Final score: Utrecht 2-3 NEC Nijmegen.

Before kick-off the model made it 39% Utrecht, 25% draw, 36% NEC Nijmegen — fair odds of 2.56, 4.00 and 2.78.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Utrecht at 39%: of 4,828 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.4% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Utrecht0%Draw5%NEC Nijmegen95%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 5 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

34'
⚽Kevin Kersassist: Mitchel Bakker
38'
⚽Dušan Tadićassist: Deveron Fonville
⚽Yoann Cathlineassist: Ángel Alarcón
56'
58'
⚽Dušan Tadić
🔁Marius Broholmout: Nordin Amrabat
59'
🔁Artem Stepanovout: Oualid Agougil
59'
🔁Ángel Alarcónout: Adrian Blake
59'
⚽Dani De Witassist: Nordin Amrabat
64'
69'
🔁Kevin Kersout: Clement Bischoff
Nordin Amrabat
72'
🔁Per Kloosterboerout: S. van Duijn
76'
77'
🔁Deveron Fonvilleout: Philippe Sandler
85'
Bryan Linssen
88'
🔁Gabriel·Brasout: Tobias Storm
88'
🔁Tjaronn Cheryout: Jamiro Monteiro
88'
🔁Dušan Tadićout: Willum Thor Willumsson
89'
Clement Bischoff
Yoann Cathline
90'
🔁Niklas Vesterlundout: Jakov Medic
90+1'
90+2'
Willum Thor Willumsson

Match stats — Utrecht vs NEC Nijmegen

49%Possession51%
16Shots16
5On target7
3Corners8
2.1xG2.2

Goals against chances

Utrecht2 from 2.10 xGabout what the chances were worth
NEC Nijmegen3 from 2.20 xGmore than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Utrecht 4-3-3
  • 1V. BarkasG
  • 23N. VesterlundD
  • 3M. DiddenD
  • 5N. PanagiotouD
  • 32P. KloosterboerD
  • 80M. BroholmM
  • 8J. van OvereemM
  • 20D. de WitM
  • 11Ángel AlarcónF
  • 9Artem StepanovF
  • 10Y. CathlineF
Substitutes
  • 38O. AgougilM
  • 39N. AmrabatF
  • 15A. BlakeF
  • 33K. GadellaaG
  • 2S. HoremansD
  • 18J. MedićD
  • 6G. OfferhausD
  • 21N. Ogidi NwankwoD
  • 22S. PadtG
Coach: A. Correia
NEC Nijmegen 3-4-2-1
  • 1G. CrettazG
  • 73Gabriel BrásD
  • 22A. KaplanD
  • 24Deveron FonvilleD
  • 34Kevin KersM
  • 6D. NejašmićM
  • 20N. LebretonM
  • 5M. BakkerM
  • 9T. CheryM
  • 10D. TadićM
  • 30B. LinssenF
Substitutes
  • 11W. WillumssonM
  • 66Almugera Raouf Mohammed KabarD
  • 35Jamiro MonteiroM
  • 42Y. MoslihD
  • 12N. PolsterG
  • 3P. SandlerD
  • 14K. SierhuisF
  • 21T. StormD
  • 19Adam TahauiF
Coach: Dick Schreuder

Form going into Utrecht vs NEC Nijmegen

Utrecht

Eredivisie

  • L2-4away to Telstar1 November 2026
  • D1-1PEC Zwolle24 October 2026
  • W2-1away to Twente18 October 2026
  • W3-1Willem II11 October 2026

NEC Nijmegen

Eredivisie

  • L0-1away to Heerenveen31 October 2026
  • D2-2Groningen25 October 2026
  • D2-2Fortuna Sittard18 October 2026
  • D1-1away to Ajax10 October 2026

What these results say

  • Utrecht scored in every one of these 4 matches.
  • Utrecht conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
  • Both sides scored in every one of these 4 matches for Utrecht.
  • NEC Nijmegen did not win any of these 4 matches.
  • NEC Nijmegen conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
  • NEC Nijmegen scored in 3 of these 4 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Eredivisie table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
14Utrecht123362134-1312
11NEC Nijmegen123542021-114

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Utrecht vs NEC Nijmegen

  • 11 February 2026NEC Nijmegen 1–3 UtrechtEredivisie
  • 2 November 2025Utrecht 1–0 NEC NijmegenEredivisie
  • 15 March 2025Utrecht 0–1 NEC NijmegenEredivisie
  • 24 November 2024NEC Nijmegen 1–2 UtrechtEredivisie
  • 17 March 2024Utrecht 1–0 NEC NijmegenEredivisie
  • 23 September 2023NEC Nijmegen 3–0 UtrechtEredivisie

The full Utrecht vs NEC Nijmegen record →

The result against the call

NEC Nijmegen won 3–2 at Utrecht. The model had leaned towards a win for Utrecht at 39% and given a win for NEC Nijmegen 36%. The goals: Kevin Kers 34' for NEC Nijmegen, Dušan Tadić 38' for NEC Nijmegen, Yoann Cathline 56' for Utrecht, Dušan Tadić 58' for NEC Nijmegen, Dani De Wit 64' for Utrecht. On expected goals it finished 2.10–2.20.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Utrecht a 13.5% chance to finish in the bottom three: 9.0% after a win, 13.1% after a draw, 17.0% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 17.0%, 3.5 points higher than before the match.

For NEC Nijmegen the question was the chance to finish in the bottom three, 7.8% going in: 4.6% after a win, 6.9% after a draw, 10.0% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 4.6%, 3.2 points lower than before the match.

Read from our Eredivisie season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.