8 November 2026, 11:15 UTC

Heerenveen vs Feyenoord Eredivisie prediction & result

Abe Lenstra Stadion, Heerenveen
Referee: Danny Makkelie
Full time5 – 3

Final score: Heerenveen 5-3 Feyenoord.

Before kick-off the model made it 28% Heerenveen, 26% draw, 46% Feyenoord — fair odds of 3.57, 3.85 and 2.17.

Most likely scoreline: 1-2.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Feyenoord at 46%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Heerenveen95%Draw5%Feyenoord0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 8 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

25'
⚽Anis Hadj Moussaassist: Nacho Ferri
31'
⚽Nacho Ferri (pen)
Robin Veldman
32'
⚽Maas Willemsen
45+3'
🔁Maxence Riveraout: Ringo Meerveld
45'
⚽Levi Smansassist: marcus linday
47'
⚽Ringo Meerveld
61'
65'
🔁Oussama Targhallineout: Sem Steijn
65'
🔁Tsuyoshi Watanabeout: Thijs Kraaijeveld
65'
🔁Luciano Valenteout: Jerayno Schaken
Levi Smans
68'
69'
⚽Sem Steijnassist: Nacho Ferri
79'
🔁Nacho Ferriout: Shaqueel Van Persie
🔁Vasilios Zagaritisout: Mats Egbring
81'
⚽Ringo Meerveldassist: Jacob Trenskow
84'
🔁Sam Kerstenout: Mees Hilgers
86'
🔁Levi Smansout: Luca Oyen
86'
86'
🔁Gjivai Zechielout: Theodoros Delianidis
⚽Ringo Meerveldassist: Luca Oyen
90+3'

Match stats — Heerenveen vs Feyenoord

54%Possession46%
18Shots9
9On target3
4Corners1
1.97xG1.22

Goals against chances

Heerenveen5 from 1.97 xGmore than the chances were worth
Feyenoord3 from 1.22 xGmore than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Heerenveen 4-2-3-1
  • 1B. KlaverboerG
  • 45O. BraudeD
  • 4S. KerstenD
  • 3M. WillemsenD
  • 19V. ZagaritisD
  • 16M. LindayM
  • 8N. CourtensM
  • 20J. TrenskowM
  • 14L. SmansM
  • 7M. RiveraM
  • 9D. VenteF
Substitutes
  • 15M. EgbringD
  • 23D. BladiD
  • 21M. FarjiF
  • 2M. HilgersD
  • 29L. MachineF
  • 10R. MeerveldM
  • 44A. NoppertG
  • 11L. OyenF
  • 28H. PetrovD
Coach: R. Veldeman
Feyenoord 4-3-3
  • 1T. ErnstG
  • 26G. ReadD
  • 4T. WatanabeD
  • 35Mika MàrmolD
  • 16Javi LópezD
  • 8G. ZechiëlM
  • 34C. VanhoutteM
  • 28O. TarghallineM
  • 23A. Hadj-MoussaF
  • 19Nacho FerriF
  • 10L. ValenteF
Substitutes
  • 20M. DeijlD
  • 50Theodoros DelianidisM
  • 27G. DiarraF
  • 33F. KastenmeierG
  • 24T. KraaijeveldM
  • 17R. NelsonF
  • 57J. SchakenF
  • 65Dani SloryD
  • 14S. SteijnM
Coach: G. van Bronckhorst

Form going into Heerenveen vs Feyenoord

Heerenveen

Eredivisie

  • W1-0NEC Nijmegen31 October 2026
  • W3-2away to ADO Den Haag24 October 2026
  • W4-0Excelsior16 October 2026
  • L0-2away to PSV Eindhoven9 October 2026

Feyenoord

Eredivisie

  • D1-1Fortuna Sittard31 October 2026
  • D1-1away to PSV Eindhoven25 October 2026
  • W4-3away to Telstar17 October 2026
  • W2-0AZ Alkmaar10 October 2026

What these results say

  • Heerenveen won 3 of these 4 matches.
  • Heerenveen scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
  • Feyenoord went unbeaten through these 4 matches.
  • Feyenoord scored in every one of these 4 matches.
  • Feyenoord conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Eredivisie table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
6Heerenveen126332416+821
2Feyenoord127413617+1925

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Heerenveen vs Feyenoord

  • 11 January 2026Heerenveen 2–2 FeyenoordEredivisie
  • 17 December 2025Feyenoord 2–3 HeerenveenKNVB Beker
  • 13 September 2025Feyenoord 1–0 HeerenveenEredivisie
  • 18 May 2025Heerenveen 2–0 FeyenoordEredivisie
  • 23 November 2024Feyenoord 3–0 HeerenveenEredivisie
  • 17 March 2024Heerenveen 2–3 FeyenoordEredivisie

The full Heerenveen vs Feyenoord record →

Leading scorers: Heerenveen and Feyenoord

Heerenveen

GoalsAssists

  • J. Trenskow63
  • R. Meerveld51

Feyenoord

GoalsAssists

  • A. Hadj-Moussa72
  • Nacho Ferri63
  • G. Zechiël54

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Heerenveen beat Feyenoord 5–3. The model had leaned towards a win for Feyenoord at 46% and given a win for Heerenveen 28%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: Anis Hadj Moussa 25' for Feyenoord, Nacho Ferri (penalty) 31' for Feyenoord, Maas Willemsen 45+3' for Heerenveen, Levi Smans 47' for Heerenveen, Ringo Meerveld 61' for Heerenveen, Sem Steijn 69' for Feyenoord, Ringo Meerveld 84' for Heerenveen, Ringo Meerveld 90+3' for Heerenveen. On expected goals it finished 1.97–1.22.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Heerenveen a 8.9% chance to finish in the top four: 12.7% after a win, 8.1% after a draw, 6.3% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 12.7%, 3.8 points higher than before the match.

For Feyenoord the question was the chance to finish top of the regular season, 27.8% going in: 30.9% after a win, 25.2% after a draw, 23.0% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 23.0%, 4.8 points lower than before the match.

Read from our Eredivisie season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.