8 November 2026, 15:45 UTC

Emmen vs MVV Eerste Divisie prediction & result

De Oude Meerdijk, Emmen
Full time0 – 2

Final score: Emmen 0-2 MVV.

Before kick-off the model made it 55% Emmen, 24% draw, 21% MVV — fair odds of 1.82, 4.17 and 4.76.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Emmen at 55%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Emmen0%Draw1%MVV99%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

12'
⚽Thijme Verheijenassist: Delano Asante
45'
🔁Toni Vinogradacout: Noa El Hamdaoui
🔁Daan Lambersout: Sybrand Veldhuis
45'
🔁Joshua Mukehout: Christian ostergaard
68'
71'
⚽Noa El Hamdaouiassist: Finn Dicke
🔁Mustafa Abdullatifout: Jasper Antonio·Huijzer
74'
🔁Torben Rheinout: Luca Denk
74'
83'
🔁Mika Luijendijkout: Samy Moumni
87'
🔁Thijme Verheijenout: Onesime Zimuangana
🔁Y. Dedelhommeout: Stan van Manen
87'
Bryan Van Hove
90+1'

Match stats — Emmen vs MVV

60%Possession40%
10Shots16
4On target6
4Corners11
1.13xG2.73

Goals against chances

Emmen0 from 1.13 xGless than the chances were worth
MVV2 from 2.73 xGless than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Emmen 4-2-3-1
  • 1S. KarssiesG
  • 2J. MukehD
  • 25R. KongoloD
  • 3Y. Dede-LhommeD
  • 17B. Van HoveD
  • 21A. HojabrpourM
  • 7T. RheinM
  • 10Mustafa AbdullatifM
  • 9J. CooperM
  • 22M. BreijM
  • 23D. LambersF
Substitutes
  • 38Kevin NorderG
  • 18V. CarusD
  • 8L. DenkM
  • 27J. HuijzerM
  • 33K. RoosG
  • 15C. SunderM
  • 40S. VeldhuisF
  • 14Stan van ManenF
  • 4C. ØstergaardD
Coach: M. van Dam
MVV 4-2-3-1
  • 1H. WentgesG
  • 17S. WegenD
  • 6F. DickeD
  • 22Sven BoulandD
  • 25Yael LiesdekD
  • 18E. SierraM
  • 19Mika LuijendijkM
  • 21D. AsanteM
  • 7L. DaneelsM
  • 11T. VerheijenM
  • 9T. VinogradacF
Substitutes
  • 20A. AmgarM
  • 14M. KuipersF
  • 12S. van der HeijdenG
  • 36Hamza AmmiM
  • 33Tristan BombleD
  • 31Yanis BourardM
  • 24N. El HamdaouiM
  • 34Samy MoumniF
  • 13S. TimmersG
Coach: A. Jonker

Form going into Emmen vs MVV

Emmen

Eerste Divisie

  • L0-5Den Bosch1 November 2026
  • W2-0away to Vitesse23 October 2026
  • W2-1Almere City FC17 October 2026

MVV

Eerste Divisie

  • L1-2VVV Venlo31 October 2026
  • D2-2away to Den Bosch23 October 2026
  • L1-5Heracles18 October 2026
  • L0-1away to NAC Breda9 October 2026

What these results say

  • MVV did not win any of these 4 matches.
  • MVV conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
  • MVV scored in 3 of these 4 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Eerste Divisie table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
6Emmen158162830-225
8MVV146261929-1020

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Emmen vs MVV

  • 6 April 2026Emmen 2–1 MVVEerste Divisie
  • 26 September 2025MVV 1–0 EmmenEerste Divisie
  • 28 March 2025MVV 1–2 EmmenEerste Divisie
  • 4 October 2024Emmen 1–1 MVVEerste Divisie
  • 12 April 2024Emmen 1–3 MVVEerste Divisie
  • 6 November 2023MVV 1–1 EmmenEerste Divisie

Leading scorers: Emmen and MVV

Emmen

GoalsAssists

  • J. Cooper113
  • F. Quispel72

MVV

GoalsAssists

  • O. Dumont51

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

MVV won 2–0 at Emmen. The model had leaned towards a win for Emmen at 55% and given a win for MVV 21%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 5 matches like this one. The goals: Thijme Verheijen 12' for MVV, Noa El Hamdaoui 71' for MVV. On expected goals it finished 1.13–2.73.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Emmen a 58.0% chance to finish in the top eight: 62.1% after a win, 54.8% after a draw, 49.1% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 49.1%, 8.9 points lower than before the match.

For MVV the question was the chance to finish in the bottom three, 27.7% going in: 17.7% after a win, 26.2% after a draw, 30.9% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 17.7%, 10 points lower than before the match.

Read from our Eerste Divisie season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Emmen v MVV has moved

First published on 25 Oct at 59% / 23% / 18% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 3 updates, it read 55% / 24% / 21%: the biggest move is Emmen's chance of winning, down 4 points.

  1. Emmen win55%▼ −4
  2. Draw24%▲ +1
  3. MVV win21%▲ +3

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.