8 November 2026, 13:30 UTC

Twente vs Ajax Eredivisie prediction & result

De Grolsch Veste, Enschede
Referee: Joey Kooij
Full time2 – 2

Final score: Twente 2-2 Ajax.

Before kick-off the model made it 45% Twente, 27% draw, 28% Ajax — fair odds of 2.22, 3.70 and 3.57.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Twente at 45%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

3'
⚽Tolu Arokodareassist: Oscar Gloukh
35'
Lucas Oliveira·Rosa
52'
Tolu Arokodare
59'
🔁Davy Klaassenout: Rayane Bounida
60'
🔁Yves Bissoumaout: Sofyan Amrabat
Robin Propper
60'
64'
Aaron Bouwman
66'
⚽Rayane Bounidaassist: Oscar Gloukh
⚽Dies Janse (OG)
68'
🔁Younes Taha El Idrissiout: Marko Pjaca
69'
70'
Oscar Gloukh
75'
•Tolu Arokodare
79'
🔁Youri Baasout: Daley Blind
Daouda Weidmann
82'
🔁Aske Emil Berg Adelgaardout: Lucas Vennegoor of Hesselink
82'
🔁Daouda Weidmannout: Thomas Van den Belt
82'
87'
🔁Tolu Arokodareout: Marcos Leonardo Santos Almeida
87'
🔁Oscar Gloukhout: Abdellah Ouazane
Ramiz Zerrouki
90+2'
•Ramiz Zerrouki
90+3'
90+4'
Owen Wijndal
⚽Wout Weghorst (pen)
90+5'

Match stats — Twente vs Ajax

55%Possession45%
22Shots6
5On target2
9Corners2
2.56xG0.72

Goals against chances

Twente2 from 2.56 xGless than the chances were worth
Ajax2 from 0.72 xGmore than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Twente 4-2-3-1
  • 16J. DrommelG
  • 28B. van RooijD
  • 3R. PröpperD
  • 4R. NijstadD
  • 29A. AdelgaardD
  • 6R. ZerroukiM
  • 8D. WeidmannM
  • 11D. RotsM
  • 10Y. TahaM
  • 27S. ØrjasæterM
  • 9W. WeghorstF
Substitutes
  • 18Jordy BawuahM
  • 31Yannick GerritsenG
  • 14K. HlynssonM
  • 24K. KurowskiD
  • 22R. PasveerG
  • 7M. PjacaF
  • 2M. RosiakD
  • 20T. van den BeltM
  • 25Lucas Vennegoor of HesselinkF
Coach: J. van den Brom
Ajax 4-2-3-1
  • 1M. ter StegenG
  • 2Lucas RosaD
  • 30A. BouwmanD
  • 36D. JanseD
  • 5O. WijndalD
  • 28Y. BissoumaM
  • 15Y. BaasM
  • 18D. KlaassenM
  • 24J. MokioM
  • 10O. GloukhM
  • 99T. ArokodareF
Substitutes
  • 38Marcos LeonardoF
  • 68A. OuazaneM
  • 26M. PaesG
  • 21Jofre TorrentsD
  • 20O. EdvardsenF
  • 12Caio HenriqueD
  • 22J. HeerkensG
  • 43Rayane BounidaF
  • 17D. BlindD
Coach: Míchel

Form going into Twente vs Ajax

Twente

Eredivisie

  • W9-0away to Excelsior1 November 2026
  • W2-0away to AZ Alkmaar25 October 2026
  • L1-2Utrecht18 October 2026
  • D1-1away to Fortuna Sittard10 October 2026

Ajax

Eredivisie

  • W1-0AZ Alkmaar31 October 2026
  • W2-1away to Sparta Rotterdam25 October 2026
  • W5-2away to Groningen18 October 2026
  • D1-1NEC Nijmegen10 October 2026

What these results say

  • Twente scored in every one of these 4 matches.
  • Ajax went unbeaten through these 4 matches.
  • Ajax scored in every one of these 4 matches.
  • Ajax won 3 of these 4 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Eredivisie table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
4Twente127323012+1824
3Ajax127413215+1725

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Twente vs Ajax

  • 16 April 2026Ajax 0–1 TwenteFriendlies Clubs
  • 4 April 2026Ajax 1–2 TwenteEredivisie
  • 26 October 2025Twente 2–3 AjaxEredivisie
  • 18 May 2025Ajax 2–0 TwenteEredivisie
  • 10 November 2024Twente 2–2 AjaxEredivisie
  • 14 April 2024Ajax 2–1 TwenteEredivisie

The full Twente vs Ajax record →

Leading scorers: Twente and Ajax

Twente

GoalsAssists

  • W. Weghorst92

Ajax

GoalsAssists

  • T. Arokodare71
  • J. Brandt62

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Twente and Ajax drew 2–2. The model had leaned towards a win for Twente at 45% and given a draw 27%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: Tolu Arokodare 3' for Ajax, Rayane Bounida 66' for Ajax, Dies Janse (own goal) 68' for Twente, Wout Weghorst (penalty) 90+5' for Twente. On expected goals it finished 2.56–0.72.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Twente a 16.0% chance to finish top of the regular season: 20.0% after a win, 13.8% after a draw, 10.4% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 13.8%, 2.2 points lower than before the match.

For Ajax the question was the chance to finish in the top four, 78.2% going in: 84.2% after a win, 80.1% after a draw, 74.4% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 80.1%, 1.9 points higher than before the match.

Read from our Eredivisie season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Twente v Ajax has moved

First published on 25 Oct at 37% / 28% / 35% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 5 updates, it read 45% / 27% / 28%: the biggest move is Twente's chance of winning, up 8 points.

  1. Twente win45%▲ +8
  2. Draw27%▼ −1
  3. Ajax win28%▼ −7

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.