Carrarese vs Empoli Serie B prediction & result
Final score: Carrarese 0-1 Empoli.
Before kick-off the model made it 40% Carrarese, 29% draw, 31% Empoli — fair odds of 2.50, 3.45 and 3.23.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
Carrarese at 40%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Carrarese vs Empoli
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1S. PizzignaccoG
- 13F. RuggeriD
- 6F. OlianaD
- 41L. RomaniD
- 33F. RealeM
- 77G. ParlantiM
- 18N. SchiaviM
- 17L. TopalovicM
- 73J. RouhiM
- 11M. CisseF
- 9F. AbiusoF
- 30N. RavagliaG
- 12G. GarofaniG
- 20G. EstevesD
- 5T. MacchioniD
- 28J. MartiniM
- 8Y. KhafiM
- 66P. PinelliM
- 23M. BraunoderM
- 7N. BelloniM
- 12J. SeghettiG
- 25M. CurtoD
- 33C. CauzD
- 8L. MagninoD
- 21G. YepesM
- 35M. EganM
- 39E. BiondiniM
- 10E. SaporitiM
- 91N. CorradoM
- 11S. ShpendiF
- 15J. CeesayF
- 1S. PerisanG
- 28G. IndragoliD
- 36D. BembnistaD
- 40R. BerizziD
- 6S. RomagnoliD
- 23F. BandinelliM
- 57L. BelardinelliM
- 98K. ZedadkaM
- 5D. Degli InnocentiM
Form going into Carrarese vs Empoli
Carrarese
All competitions we cover
- D1-1away to Ascoli29 August 2026
- L1-2Mantova22 August 2026
Empoli
All competitions we cover
- L1-3away to Mantova30 August 2026
- W1-0Cremonese22 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Serie B table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | Carrarese | 11 | 3 | 1 | 7 | 9 | 14 | -5 | 10 |
| 19 | Empoli | 11 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 12 | 19 | -7 | 9 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Carrarese vs Empoli
- 23 January 2026Carrarese 3–0 EmpoliSerie B
- 28 September 2025Empoli 2–2 CarrareseSerie B
Leading scorers: Carrarese and Empoli
Carrarese
No player in Serie B's leading scorers — 9 league goals as a side.
Empoli
GoalsAssists
- E. Saporiti40
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Empoli won 1–0 at Carrarese. The model had leaned towards a win for Carrarese at 40% and given a win for Empoli 31%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one. The goal: Bogdan Popov 74' for Empoli. On expected goals it finished 0.77–0.70.