27 October 2026, 19:00 UTC

Ascoli vs Sampdoria Serie B prediction & result

Stadio Cino e Lillo Del Duca, Ascoli Piceno
Referee: Marco Di Bello
Full time2 – 0

Final score: Ascoli 2-0 Sampdoria.

Before kick-off the model made it 64% Ascoli, 23% draw, 13% Sampdoria — fair odds of 1.56, 4.35 and 7.69.

Most likely scoreline: 2-0.

The model called the exact scoreline.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Ascoli at 64%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

53'
Filippo Delli Carri
⚽Andrea·Silipoassist: Matteo Brunori
55'
66'
🔁Alex Ferrariout: Stefan Gartenmann
66'
🔁Antoine Makoumbouout: Gennaro Tutino
🔁Matteo Brunoriout: Gabriele Gori
66'
🔁Lorenzo Venutiout: Andrea Oliveri
66'
🔁Gennao Acamporaout: Tommaso Milanese
66'
72'
🔁Tobias Lauritsenout: Yann Karamoh
🔁Manuel Nicolettiout: Nicholas Rizzo
76'
⚽Oliver Abildgaard (OG)
82'
🔁Giovanni Corradiniout: Sergiu Perciun
85'
Abdoul Guiebre
89'
89'
Tjas Begic
90+4'
🔁Alessandro Di Pardoout: Karim Diop

Match stats — Ascoli vs Sampdoria

67%Possession33%
12Shots13
5On target6
9Corners4
0.66xG0.7

Goals against chances

Ascoli2 from 0.66 xGmore than the chances were worth
Sampdoria0 from 0.70 xGless than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Ascoli 3-5-2
  • 1S. VitaleG
  • 5L. VenutiD
  • 30M. CuradoD
  • 3M. NicolettiD
  • 7A. SilipoM
  • 8G. CorradiniM
  • 4S. DamianiM
  • 13G. AcamporaM
  • 19A. GuiébréM
  • 99Matteo BrunoriF
  • 15S. D'UffiziF
Substitutes
  • 45G. CrespiG
  • 21G. De PieriM
  • 77D. BolsiusF
  • 35G. GoriF
  • 32F. GattoniD
  • 18L. Lo ScalzoM
  • 62T. MilaneseM
  • 14A. OliveriM
  • 11S. PerciunM
Coach: Francesco Tomei
Sampdoria 4-3-2-1
  • 12Andrey KrastevG
  • 29A. Di PardoD
  • 25A. FerrariD
  • 15F. Delli CarriD
  • 7M. CicconiD
  • 45A. MakoumbouM
  • 28O. AbildgaardM
  • 6L. HendersonM
  • 11T. BegićM
  • 16Y. VerschaerenM
  • 9T. LauritsenF
Substitutes
  • 38K. DiopD
  • 44Gerald DonegàM
  • 3S. GartenmannD
  • 14Yann KaramohF
  • 96S. MassoloG
  • 43K. MbabuD
  • 39L. MezzoteroF
  • 40Federico PiermatteiD
  • 99G. TutinoF
Coach: L. D'Angelo

Form going into Ascoli vs Sampdoria

Ascoli

Serie B

  • W6-1away to Catanzaro24 October 2026
  • D1-1Empoli17 October 2026

Sampdoria

Serie B

  • D1-1away to Sudtirol24 October 2026
  • L1-2Arezzo18 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Serie B table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
3Ascoli11551177+1020
15Sampdoria113261118-711

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Ascoli vs Sampdoria

  • 11 March 2024Sampdoria 2–1 AscoliSerie B
  • 7 October 2023Ascoli 1–1 SampdoriaSerie B
  • 20 October 2022Sampdoria 2–2 AscoliCoppa Italia

Leading scorers: Ascoli and Sampdoria

Ascoli

GoalsAssists

  • A. Silipo41
  • G. Gori32

Sampdoria

No player in Serie B's leading scorers — 11 league goals as a side.

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Ascoli beat Sampdoria 2–0. That was the exact score the model named before kick-off, with a win for Ascoli at 64%. The goals: Andrea·Silipo 55' for Ascoli, Oliver Abildgaard (own goal) 82' for Ascoli. On expected goals it finished 0.66–0.70.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Ascoli a 48.6% chance to finish in the top two: 51.4% after a win, 44.3% after a draw, 36.7% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 51.4%, 2.8 points higher than before the match.

For Sampdoria the question was the chance to finish in the bottom three, 54.6% going in: 41.5% after a win, 53.6% after a draw, 56.4% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 56.4%, 1.8 points higher than before the match.

Read from our Serie B season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Ascoli v Sampdoria has moved

First published on 13 Oct at 54% / 28% / 18% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 4 updates, it read 64% / 23% / 13%: the biggest move is Ascoli's chance of winning, up 10 points.

  1. Ascoli win64%▲ +10
  2. Draw23%▼ −5
  3. Sampdoria win13%▼ −5

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.