27 October 2026, 19:00 UTC

Cesena vs Empoli Serie B prediction & result

Stadio Dino Manuzzi, Cesena
Referee: Mario Perri
Full time2 – 1

Final score: Cesena 2-1 Empoli.

Before kick-off the model made it 40% Cesena, 29% draw, 31% Empoli — fair odds of 2.50, 3.45 and 3.23.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Cesena at 40%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

14'
Simone Romagnoli
Gianluca Frabotta
24'
Luca D'Andrea
31'
🔁Gianluca Frabottaout: Antonio David
34'
⚽Cristian Shpendiassist: Luca D'Andrea
39'
45+3'
Luca Magnino
🔁Matteo Piacentiniout: Andrea Ciofi
45'
45'
🔁Luca Magninoout: Dawid Bembnista
45'
🔁Simone Romagnoliout: Gabriele Indragoli
56'
🔁Bogdan Popovout: Joseph Ceesay
62'
⚽Edoardo Saporiti
🔁Luca D'Andreaout: Alessandro Debenedetti
71'
🔁Emil Bohinenout: Matteo Guidi
71'
71'
🔁Gerard Yepesout: Filippo Bandinelli
⚽Jacopo Seghetti (OG)
74'
76'
🔁Cristian Cauzout: Filippo Di Stefano
Alessandro Debenedetti
79'
Cristian Shpendi
81'
🔁X. Druiventakout: Vittorio Magni
83'
Vittorio Magni
89'
90+3'
•Filippo Di Stefano
90+5'
Steven Shpendi

Match stats — Cesena vs Empoli

46%Possession54%
13Shots11
3On target5
7Corners5
1.35xG0.62

Goals against chances

Cesena2 from 1.35 xGmore than the chances were worth
Empoli1 from 0.62 xGabout what the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Cesena 4-2-3-1
  • 1A. SianoG
  • 26M. PiacentiniD
  • 4J. GelliD
  • 24M. MangravitiD
  • 7G. FrabottaD
  • 25D. BisoliM
  • 32E. BohinenM
  • 16L. D'AndreaM
  • 10R. PaganoM
  • 14X. DruiventakM
  • 9C. ShpendiF
Substitutes
  • 39N. FontanaG
  • 15A. CiofiD
  • 27M. Dalla VecchiaM
  • 3A. DavidD
  • 91A. DebenedettiF
  • 2M. NattaD
  • 23V. MagniD
  • 6M. IlićD
  • 18M. GuidiM
Coach: Alessandro Diamanti
Empoli 3-5-2
  • 12J. SeghettiG
  • 8L. MagninoD
  • 6S. RomagnoliD
  • 33C. CauzD
  • 98K. ZedadkaM
  • 39E. BiondiniM
  • 21Gerard YepesM
  • 10E. SaporitiM
  • 91N. CorradoM
  • 77B. PopovF
  • 11S. ShpendiF
Substitutes
  • 15J. CeesayD
  • 1S. PerisanG
  • 28G. IndragoliD
  • 13E. FilippisG
  • 35M. EganD
  • 20F. DistefanoF
  • 44L. DeliM
  • 5D. Degli InnocentiM
  • 36D. BembnistaD
Coach: M. Andreoletti

Form going into Cesena vs Empoli

Cesena

Serie B

  • L0-3away to Modena24 October 2026
  • D1-1Avellino18 October 2026

Empoli

Serie B

  • L0-2Vicenza Virtus23 October 2026
  • D1-1away to Ascoli17 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Serie B table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
11Cesena113621214-215
19Empoli112361219-79

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Cesena vs Empoli

  • 28 February 2026Empoli 1–1 CesenaSerie B
  • 10 January 2026Cesena 0–1 EmpoliSerie B
  • 17 April 2018Cesena 2–3 EmpoliSerie B
  • 18 November 2017Empoli 5–3 CesenaSerie B
  • 29 November 2016Empoli 1–2 CesenaCoppa Italia
  • 8 February 2015Empoli 2–0 CesenaSerie A

Leading scorers: Cesena and Empoli

Cesena

GoalsAssists

  • C. Shpendi81

Empoli

GoalsAssists

  • E. Saporiti40

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Cesena beat Empoli 2–1. The model had made a win for Cesena its most likely outcome, at 40%, so the call held; the score it named was 1–0. The goals: Cristian Shpendi 39' for Cesena, Edoardo Saporiti 62' for Empoli, Jacopo Seghetti (own goal) 74' for Cesena. Sent off: Steven Shpendi (Empoli) 90+5'. On expected goals it finished 1.35–0.62.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Cesena a 30.0% chance to finish in the bottom three: 24.9% after a win, 30.9% after a draw, 36.2% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 24.9%, 5.1 points lower than before the match.

For Empoli the question was the chance to finish in the bottom three, 31.0% going in: 23.8% after a win, 30.8% after a draw, 35.5% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 35.5%, 4.5 points higher than before the match.

Read from our Serie B season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Cesena v Empoli has moved

First published on 13 Oct at 42% / 28% / 30% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 5 updates, it read 40% / 29% / 31%: the biggest move is Cesena's chance of winning, down 2 points.

  1. Cesena win40%▼ −2
  2. Draw29%▲ +1
  3. Empoli win31%▲ +1

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.