Virtus Entella vs Avellino Serie B prediction & result
Final score: Virtus Entella 1-1 Avellino.
Before kick-off the model made it 39% Virtus Entella, 30% draw, 31% Avellino — fair odds of 2.56, 3.33 and 3.23.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
Virtus Entella at 39%: of 4,828 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.4% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Virtus Entella vs Avellino
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 22F. Del FrateG
- 3N. PrevitaliD
- 6A. TiritielloD
- 27M. AlborghettiD
- 8L. VignaliM
- 24A. FranzoniM
- 5N. SquizzatoM
- 18T. AnnoniM
- 26Stefano Di MarioM
- 10L. CupponeF
- 17M. TirelliF
- 9Giacomo CoronaF
- 80L. BenedettiM
- 40Gabriele CostaM
- 55Lucas FelippeM
- 11Bernat GuiuF
- 70Marwane KrittaD
- 15I. MarconiD
- 94F. MezzoniM
- 39M. MotoleseD
- 50T. MartinelliG
- 4A. IzzoD
- 23M. VenturiD
- 56P. EnriciD
- 2F. MissoriM
- 8L. Di MaggioM
- 16G. FaticantiM
- 24D. SounasM
- 27B. MoruzziM
- 99A. FavilliF
- 14T. BiasciF
- 3M. SalaD
- 10R. RussoF
- 7L. PandolfiF
- 6L. PalmieroM
- 20M. PalumboM
- 1A. IannarilliG
- 5A. Di BitontoD
- 9W. CheddiraF
- 29T. CancellottiD
Form going into Virtus Entella vs Avellino
Virtus Entella
Serie B
- L0-1Mantova24 October 2026
- W2-1away to Padova17 October 2026
Avellino
Serie B
- L0-1Padova24 October 2026
- D1-1away to Cesena18 October 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Serie B table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Virtus Entella | 11 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 11 | 14 | -3 | 10 |
| 5 | Avellino | 11 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 16 | 11 | +5 | 16 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Virtus Entella vs Avellino
- 15 March 2026Virtus Entella 1–2 AvellinoSerie B
- 27 September 2025Avellino 2–0 Virtus EntellaSerie B
- 10 May 2025Virtus Entella 1–1 AvellinoSerie C - Supercoppa Lega Finals
- 14 April 2018Virtus Entella 1–1 AvellinoSerie B
- 11 November 2017Avellino 0–0 Virtus EntellaSerie B
- 28 January 2017Avellino 2–2 Virtus EntellaSerie B
Leading scorers: Virtus Entella and Avellino
Virtus Entella
No player in Serie B's leading scorers — 11 league goals as a side.
Avellino
GoalsAssists
- R. Russo52
- M. Besaggio30
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Virtus Entella and Avellino drew 1–1. The model had leaned towards a win for Virtus Entella at 39% and given a draw 30%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one. The goals: M Tirelli 27' for Virtus Entella, Emanuele Adamo 90+4' for Avellino. On expected goals it finished 0.61–0.88.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Virtus Entella a 11.6% chance to finish in the bottom three: 8.3% after a win, 11.5% after a draw, 15.0% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure about where it was, at 11.5%.
For Avellino the question was the chance to finish in the bottom three, 7.5% going in: 4.9% after a win, 7.5% after a draw, 8.5% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure about where it was, at 7.5%.
Read from our Serie B season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.