27 October 2026, 17:00 UTC

Dinamo Zagreb vs HNK Rijeka HNL prediction & result

Stadion Maksimir, Zagreb
Referee: Dario Bel
Full time2 – 1

Final score: Dinamo Zagreb 2-1 HNK Rijeka.

Before kick-off the model made it 62% Dinamo Zagreb, 22% draw, 16% HNK Rijeka — fair odds of 1.61, 4.55 and 6.25.

Most likely scoreline: 2-0.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Dinamo Zagreb at 62%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Dinamo Zagreb97%Draw3%HNK Rijeka0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

⚽Luka Stojkovicassist: Dion Drena Beljo
35'
37'
Ante Majstorović
Stjepan Radeljić
42'
63'
⚽Samuele Vignatoassist: Mladen Devetak
🔁Niko Galešićout: Moris Valinčić
69'
🔁Dani Rodríguezout: Iker Almena Horcajo
69'
🔁Miha Zajcout: Luka Ivanušec
75'
🔁Bruno Godaout: Matteo Perez Vinlöf
75'
80'
🔁Toni Frukout: Justas Lasickas
84'
🔁Samuele Vignatoout: Amer Gojak
⚽Luka Stojkovicassist: Josip Mišić
85'
89'
🔁Ivan Cubelicout: Jakov Puljić
89'
🔁Mladen Devetakout: Mohammad Mohebbi
🔁Arber Hoxhaout: Mislav Oršić
90'

Match stats — Dinamo Zagreb vs HNK Rijeka

54%Possession46%
16Shots5
7On target1
3Corners1
1.54xG0.42

Goals against chances

Dinamo Zagreb2 from 1.54 xGabout what the chances were worth
HNK Rijeka1 from 0.42 xGmore than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Dinamo Zagreb 4-1-4-1
  • 24D. KotarskiG
  • 15N. GalešićD
  • 36Sergi DomínguezD
  • 6S. RadeljićD
  • 3B. GodaD
  • 27J. MišićM
  • 7Dani RodríguezM
  • 10L. StojkovićM
  • 8M. ZajcM
  • 11A. HoxhaM
  • 9D. BeljoF
Substitutes
  • 44I. FilipovićG
  • 23Iker AlmenaF
  • 17L. IvanušecM
  • 80L. KačavendaM
  • 5K. KravtsovM
  • 21M. LisicaF
  • 99M. OršićF
  • 14S. PrevljakF
  • 22Olof Matteo Perez VinlöfD
Coach: Mario Kovacevic
HNK Rijeka 4-2-3-1
  • 13I. VekičG
  • 22A. OrečD
  • 45A. MajstorovićD
  • 51A. HusicD
  • 34M. DevetakD
  • 8I. ĆubelićM
  • 6B. PavićM
  • 10T. FrukM
  • 26Tiago DantasM
  • 19S. VignatoM
  • 18D. Adu-AdjeiF
Substitutes
  • 99A. TodorovićG
  • 21J. PuljićF
  • 9M. MohebiM
  • 23J. LasickasD
  • 1V. KovacG
  • 7Y. KabadayıF
  • 77A. JuričF
  • 4N. JankovićM
  • 14A. GojakM
Coach: M. Kek

Form going into Dinamo Zagreb vs HNK Rijeka

Dinamo Zagreb

HNL

  • W5-1away to NK Slaven Belupo18 October 2026
  • L1-2away to HNK Hajduk Split10 October 2026

HNK Rijeka

HNL

  • W2-1away to Rudes16 October 2026
  • L1-4away to NK Slaven Belupo11 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

HNL table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
2Dinamo Zagreb128132815+1325
6HNK Rijeka125341918+118

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Dinamo Zagreb vs HNK Rijeka

  • 13 May 2026Dinamo Zagreb 2–0 HNK RijekaCup
  • 18 April 2026Dinamo Zagreb 2–2 HNK RijekaHNL
  • 8 February 2026HNK Rijeka 0–0 Dinamo ZagrebHNL
  • 1 November 2025Dinamo Zagreb 2–1 HNK RijekaHNL
  • 16 August 2025HNK Rijeka 0–2 Dinamo ZagrebHNL
  • 27 April 2025Dinamo Zagreb 1–0 HNK RijekaHNL

Leading scorers: Dinamo Zagreb and HNK Rijeka

Dinamo Zagreb

GoalsAssists

  • D. Beljo136
  • L. Stojković32

HNK Rijeka

GoalsAssists

  • T. Fruk54
  • D. Adu-Adjei43
  • S. Vignato41

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Dinamo Zagreb beat HNK Rijeka 2–1. The model had made a win for Dinamo Zagreb its most likely outcome, at 62%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–0. The goals: Luka Stojkovic 35' for Dinamo Zagreb, Samuele Vignato 63' for HNK Rijeka, Luka Stojkovic 85' for Dinamo Zagreb. On expected goals it finished 1.54–0.42.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Dinamo Zagreb a 75.1% chance to win the league: 78.0% after a win, 71.2% after a draw, 66.5% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 78.0%, 2.9 points higher than before the match.

For HNK Rijeka the question was the chance to finish in the top four, 74.6% going in: 83.8% after a win, 75.2% after a draw, 73.2% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 73.2%, 1.4 points lower than before the match.

Read from our HNL season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Dinamo Zagreb v HNK Rijeka has moved

First published on 10 Oct at 56% / 25% / 19% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 3 updates, it read 62% / 22% / 16%: the biggest move is Dinamo Zagreb's chance of winning, up 6 points.

  1. Dinamo Zagreb win62%▲ +6
  2. Draw22%▼ −3
  3. HNK Rijeka win16%▼ −3

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.