27 October 2026, 18:00 UTC

Benevento vs Catanzaro Serie B prediction & result

Stadio Ciro Vigorito, Benevento
Referee: Alberto Poli
Full time1 – 1

Final score: Benevento 1-1 Catanzaro.

Before kick-off the model made it 57% Benevento, 23% draw, 20% Catanzaro — fair odds of 1.75, 4.35 and 5.00.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Benevento at 57%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Benevento97%Draw3%Catanzaro0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

Christian Kouan
22'
46'
Matias Antonini Lui
•Luigi Cherubini
49'
50'
Antonio Candela
⚽Francesco Salvemini (pen)
51'
59'
🔁Matias Antonini Luiout: Ruggero Frosinini
59'
🔁Mehdi Dorvalout: Federico Di Francesco
🔁Davide Lamestaout: David Okereke
62'
🔁Christian Kouanout: Antonio prisco
62'
Stefano Scognamillo
63'
🔁Francesco Salveminiout: G. Mignani
67'
71'
🔁Antonio Candelaout: Marco D'Alessandro
71'
🔁Jacopo Petriccioneout: Simone Pafundi
79'
🔁Federico Di Francescoout: Nicolo Buso
85'
Marco Imperiale
🔁Pietro Beruattoout: Raffaele Romano
86'
🔁Luigi Cherubiniout: Pietro Saio
86'
90+2'
⚽Nicolo Buso
Mattia Maita
90+3'

Match stats — Benevento vs Catanzaro

52%Possession48%
18Shots10
3On target2
5Corners5
2.54xG0.47

Goals against chances

Benevento1 from 2.54 xGless than the chances were worth
Catanzaro1 from 0.47 xGmore than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Benevento 4-3-3
  • 26G. VannucchiG
  • 17L. SernicolaD
  • 14S. ScognamilloD
  • 15C. Dalle MuraD
  • 20P. BeruattoD
  • 6A. SiatounisM
  • 8M. MaitaM
  • 28C. KouanM
  • 11D. LamestaF
  • 9F. SalveminiF
  • 10L. CherubiniF
Substitutes
  • 22M. EspositoG
  • 5L. CaldirolaD
  • 16Mattia ManniniD
  • 32G. MignaniF
  • 29D. OkerekeF
  • 4A. PriscoM
  • 25Raffaele RomanoD
  • 23P. SaioD
  • 21E. SchimmentiM
Coach: Antonio Floro Flores
Catanzaro 3-5-2
  • 22M. PigliacelliG
  • 24M. RuggeroD
  • 4Matias AntoniniD
  • 3M. ImperialeD
  • 27A. CandelaM
  • 28F. TchaounaM
  • 10J. PetriccioneM
  • 30G. AlesiM
  • 93M. DorvalM
  • 19N. KoffiF
  • 9P. IemmelloF
Substitutes
  • 6Niccolò PostiglioneD
  • 8A. PogačarM
  • 20S. PafundiM
  • 98N. MostiM
  • 1C. MariettaG
  • 62R. FrosininiD
  • 29F. Di FrancescoF
  • 77M. D'AlessandroF
  • 21F. CassaM
Coach: M. Mignani

Form going into Benevento vs Catanzaro

Benevento

Serie B

  • W3-0away to Arezzo24 October 2026
  • D2-2Vicenza Virtus17 October 2026

Catanzaro

Serie B

  • L1-6Ascoli24 October 2026
  • D2-2away to Hellas Verona16 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Serie B table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
6Benevento114431511+416
20Catanzaro111371123-126

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Leading scorers: Benevento and Catanzaro

Benevento

GoalsAssists

  • A. Siatounis40

Catanzaro

No player in Serie B's leading scorers — 11 league goals as a side.

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Benevento and Catanzaro drew 1–1. The model had leaned towards a win for Benevento at 57% and given a draw 23%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: Francesco Salvemini (penalty) 51' for Benevento, Nicolo Buso 90+2' for Catanzaro. On expected goals it finished 2.54–0.47.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Benevento a 23.2% chance to finish in the top two: 25.2% after a win, 20.4% after a draw, 17.5% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 20.4%, 2.8 points lower than before the match.

For Catanzaro the question was the chance to finish in the bottom three, 23.0% going in: 16.0% after a win, 21.6% after a draw, 25.2% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 21.6%, 1.4 points lower than before the match.

Read from our Serie B season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Benevento v Catanzaro has moved

First published on 13 Oct at 49% / 26% / 25% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 9 updates, it read 57% / 23% / 20%: the biggest move is Benevento's chance of winning, up 8 points.

  1. Benevento win57%▲ +8
  2. Draw23%▼ −3
  3. Catanzaro win20%▼ −5

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.