Celta de Vigo II
vs
Eibar
Segunda División prediction & result
Final score: Celta de Vigo II 0-4 Eibar.
Before kick-off the model made it 37% Celta de Vigo II, 29% draw, 34% Eibar — fair odds of 2.70, 3.45 and 2.94. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Celta de Vigo II 1.44, Eibar 1.36.
Both teams to score: 57%. Over 2.5 goals: 53%, under 2.5: 47%.
Model confidence: Low.
Published · updated
Model insights: Celta de Vigo II vs Eibar
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Celta de Vigo II at 37% here. Across 2477 settled matches, 1764 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.4% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Celta de Vigo II vs Eibar
Line-ups
- 1Coke CarrilloG
- 21Alexis OlmedoD
- 3K. RibesD
- 20A. RodriguezD
- 23G. MillerM
- 29M. SobralM
- 16Adrià CapdevilaM
- 18Joel LópezM
- 10O. MarcosF
- 9A. MarinF
- 11Ángel ArcosF
- 13Caio BaroneG
- 17H. CuencaM
- 19A. Davila OutereloF
- 2P. GavianD
- 25M. GonzalezG
- 6P. MeixusD
- 28Vladimir Henrique SilvaF
- 15A. KibetM
- 32H. LopezM
- 13Jon MikelG
- 2Sergio CuberoD
- 18M. AranaD
- 4Unai ElgezabalD
- 23Anaitz ArbillaD
- 30Aleix GarridoM
- 8Ander MadariagaM
- 7Malcom AduM
- 11Jon MagunazelaiaM
- 10Jon GuruzetaM
- 9Jon BautistaF
- 27Elijah Gift Izobodo JohnF
- 21Iván GilM
- 20Javi MartónF
- 34Oier LlorenteD
- 17PejiñoF
- 22Álvaro RodríguezD
- 36Haritz OrtuzarD
- 28Lucas NuñezM
- 1Luis LópezG
Form going into Celta de Vigo II vs Eibar
Celta de Vigo II
- W2-0away to AD Ceuta FC5 September 2026
- L1-2Castellón31 August 2026
- W4-2FC Andorra24 August 2026
- D0-0away to Cadiz15 August 2026
Eibar
- W3-0Granada CF6 September 2026
- W1-0away to FC Andorra30 August 2026
- W1-0Valladolid23 August 2026
- L1-3Tenerife16 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Segunda División table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Celta de Vigo II | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 8 | -1 | 7 |
| 2 | Eibar | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 10 | 3 | +7 | 12 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Celta de Vigo II vs Eibar
- 14 September 2026Celta de Vigo II 0–4 EibarSegunda División
Leading scorers: Celta de Vigo II and Eibar
Celta de Vigo II
- B. Somuah2 goals
- A. Marin2 goals
Eibar
- Jon Guruzeta3 goals1 assists
- Malcom Adu2 goals1 assists
- Iván Gil1 goals1 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Expected against actual
Pre-match the model expected 1.44 goals for Celta de Vigo II and 1.36 for Eibar; the game produced 0 and 4.
Goals
Scorers, in order: Jon Magunazelaia 9' (Eibar), Malcom Ares 13' (Eibar), jon guruzeta 20' (Eibar), jon guruzeta 43' (Eibar).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1168 correct results out of 2477 settled predictions (47%), with 234 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Celta de Vigo II the highest probability at 37%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.44 expected goals for Celta de Vigo II against 1.36 for Eibar. Celta de Vigo II's attack/defence rating is 0.69/1.5 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.75/1.28 for Eibar.