Mallorca vs Sabadell Segunda División prediction & result
Final score: Mallorca 2-0 Sabadell.
Before kick-off the model made it 48% Mallorca, 28% draw, 24% Sabadell — fair odds of 2.08, 3.57 and 4.17. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Mallorca at 48% here. Across 2477 settled matches, 1116 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.4% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Mallorca vs Sabadell
Line-ups
- 1Arnau TenasG
- 34M. CalatayudD
- 24M. ValjentD
- 21RaílloD
- 22A. SouhmahoroD
- 8Manu MorlanesM
- 10DarderM
- 7Álex SalaM
- 19Josep CerdàF
- 18FuentesF
- 33Adrian LisoF
- 16A. BuksaF
- 13L. BergströmG
- 25Iván CuéllarG
- 2Guille FernándezM
- 4David LópezD
- 15John NwankwoD
- 29L. OrejuelaD
- 17Arnau PuigmalM
- 23Antoniu RocaF
- 1Diego FuoliG
- 7Ton RipollD
- 14Óscar SanzD
- 6Edgar GonzálezD
- 4Miki CodinaD
- 22Q. LiameedM
- 20UrriM
- 8Pere PonsM
- 10Ángel BaenaM
- 23J. PriegoF
- 16N. GioacchiniF
- 30Xavier Moreno HernándezF
- 29P. NuamahF
- 9N. ObolskiyF
- 13J. OrtegaG
- 2PipaD
- 19Y. RahmaniF
- 21Alain RibeiroM
- 12Gastón VallesF
- 25Marc VidalG
Form going into Mallorca vs Sabadell
Mallorca
- D0-0away to Eldense5 September 2026
- W3-0AD Ceuta FC30 August 2026
- L0-2away to Granada CF24 August 2026
- W2-0Valladolid15 August 2026
Sabadell
- W3-2Cordoba7 September 2026
- W1-0Almeria29 August 2026
- D0-0away to Castellón23 August 2026
- D0-0away to Sporting Gijon17 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Segunda División table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Mallorca | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 2 | +5 | 10 |
| 11 | Sabadell | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 8 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Mallorca vs Sabadell
- 13 September 2026Mallorca 2–0 SabadellSegunda División
- 26 April 2021Sabadell 1–0 MallorcaSegunda División
- 27 September 2020Mallorca 1–0 SabadellSegunda División
Leading scorers: Mallorca and Sabadell
Mallorca
- Fuentes3 goals
- Álex Sala1 goals2 assists
Sabadell
- N. Gioacchini3 goals
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.