29 August 2026, 14:00 UTC

Celtic vs Falkirk Premiership prediction & result

Celtic Park, Glasgow
Full time2 – 1

Final score: Celtic 2-1 Falkirk.

Before kick-off the model made it 65% Celtic, 20% draw, 15% Falkirk — fair odds of 1.54, 5.00 and 6.67. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 2-0.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Celtic at 65% here. Across 2485 settled matches, 276 forecasts have landed in the 65–100% band; those outcomes actually happened 60.1% of the time, against an average forecast of 74.5%. In this range the model is over-confident, so read the figure above as optimistic rather than literal.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

⚽C. Duran
4'
•Camilo Durán
5'
⚽C. Duranassist: K. Tierney
29'
35'
Lewis Neilson
44'
Leon McCann
Colby Donovan
45+2'
60'
🔁B. Parkinsonout: J. Murrell
🔁H. Hassanout: J. Forrest
63'
69'
🔁L. McCannout: S. Tanser
69'
🔁E. Rossout: C. McLeod
69'
🔁C. Fodreyout: A. Doherty
🔁K. Tierneyout: A. Trusty
70'
🔁C. Duranout: C. Osmand
70'
72'
⚽C. Donovan (OG)
77'
Connor McLeod
🔁Yang Hyun-Junout: S. Tounekti
78'
🔁A. Oxlade-Chamberlainout: L. McCowan
78'
78'
🔁B. Krauhausout: D. Melniks
82'
Aodhan Doherty

Match stats — Celtic vs Falkirk

56%Possession44%
19Shots5
8On target1
6Corners3
2.87xG0.53

Goals against chances

Celtic2 from 2.87 xGless than the chances were worth
Falkirk1 from 0.53 xGabout what the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Celtic 4-2-3-1
  • 1V. SinisaloG
  • 51C. DonovanD
  • 20C. Carter-VickersD
  • 5L. ScalesD
  • 63K. TierneyD
  • 22M. BaurM
  • 21A. Oxlade-ChamberlainM
  • 23H. HassanM
  • 8B. NygrenM
  • 13Yang Hyun-JunM
  • 11C. DuranF
Substitutes
  • 31R. DoohanG
  • 6A. TrustyD
  • 47D. MurrayD
  • 19C. OsmandF
  • 62L. KennedyM
  • 49J. ForrestM
  • 17S. TounektiF
  • 24J. KennyF
  • 14L. McCowanM
Coach: Martin O'Neill
Falkirk 4-2-3-1
  • 19S. BainG
  • 22R. StrainD
  • 15L. NeilsonD
  • 5L. HendersonD
  • 3L. McCannD
  • 16F. BarbrookM
  • 8B. SpencerM
  • 23E. RossM
  • 28B. KrauhausM
  • 99C. FodreyM
  • 7B. ParkinsonF
Substitutes
  • 1N. HogarthG
  • 4J. McMillanD
  • 6C. DonaldsonD
  • 17S. TanserD
  • 21D. MelniksM
  • 27C. McLeodM
  • 9R. MacIverF
  • 24J. MurrellF
  • 47A. DohertyF
Coach: John McGlynn

Form going into Celtic vs Falkirk

Celtic

  • W5-1away to Kilmarnock9 August 2026

Falkirk

  • D0-0away to Motherwell9 August 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

Premiership table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
1Celtic6600143+1118
10Falkirk612358-35

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Celtic vs Falkirk

  • 29 August 2026Celtic 2–1 FalkirkPremiership
  • 25 April 2026Celtic 3–1 FalkirkPremiership
  • 1 February 2026Celtic 2–0 FalkirkPremiership
  • 14 January 2026Falkirk 0–1 CelticPremiership
  • 29 October 2025Celtic 4–0 FalkirkPremiership
  • 15 August 2025Celtic 4–1 FalkirkLeague Cup

Leading scorers: Celtic and Falkirk

Celtic

  • C. Durán3 goals3 assists
  • B. Nygren3 goals3 assists
  • K. Høgh3 goals

Falkirk

No player in Premiership's leading scorers — 5 league goals as a side.

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.